Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 17 - 23.02.2014, Forecast on 24.02 - 02.02.2014 , Carrington Rotation 2147 (11,73.02.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMINDER AT MEDIUM AND HIGH LEVELS, GRA- DUALLY INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD. THE AVERAGE OF SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=087+24/-26. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 6-8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO OF WHICH WERE THE LARGE SIZE: AR11974 (S11L359, Sp max= 760 mvh, 14M)- the area of sunspot group has become a increase rapidly with 12.02 but all the energy of a new magnetic flux has left in the flares ofšaverage class. It went for the western limb at 19.02, based on indirect evidence, continu- ed active flare activity. AR11982 (S11L206, Sp max=560 mvh) - quiet active region. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND THE MODERATE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT- FORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=090+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MODERATE LEVEL 20 AND 23.02, AND THE LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE OBSERVED 4 SOLAR FILA- MENT EJECTIONS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OB- SERVED 52 CME, 1 WAS THE TYPE "HALO", 2 WERE “PARTIAL HALO III” AND 5 - “PARTIAL HALO II”. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 20.02 0726 0756 0832 S15W73L319 M3.0/SN 6.5E-2 11976 II/2 CME/H/529 23.02 0550 0610 >0636 S16E88L114? M1.1/ 2.2E-2 ? DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 17.02 >1020 <2335 S11E46L235 09 18.02 0614 0854 s11E54L214 17 19.02 >1034 <2259 S28W04L258 26 21.02 0234 0304 S33E35L193 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE- VELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - N03L183 S25L155 S30L168 N00L185 28.02 1 SDO, SOHO,.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A - active. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 23.02/10 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELDS. THE SIGN CHANGED AT 19/0430 UT AND 21/0330 UT. THE FOL- LOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 28.02. FEBRUARY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 FEBRUARY Wus 101 134 123 140 152 179 185 F10.7 152 151 158 156 157 163 172 èbcg ÷7.8 ÷9.4 ÷8.1 ÷7.5 ÷8.0 B8.8 B9.9 GOES Sp 1090 1300 940 880 870 1020 1110 mvh N 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 IMF - - + + + +/- - áóå Å>2 2.0å+5 4.7å+5 1.0å+6 2.1å+6 4.1å+7 5.8E+7 5.1E+7 GOES Ie>2 1951 1760 2779 pfu GOES Ap 6 7 49 43 13 12 18 nT áÒ Dst -28 -47 -123 -95 -61 -66 -59 nT KIOTO Amsc 6 10 28 26 12 14 23 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. 2 MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT OCCURRENCES 18 é 21.02 FROM SOLAR FLARE EVENTS IN áR11976 (S15L320, Sp max= 390 ÍÄÐ, 1í): Pr >10 MeV: to 19/9 UT; max 3 pfu - 20/~3 UT; te 20/07 UT; Pr >10 MeV: to 20/07 UT; max 22 pfu - 20/0925 UT; te 21/07 UT; THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OBSERVED 21-23.02. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL EXPECTED 24 - 26.02. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS DISTURBED TO MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM LEVEL 19. 02 (G2, Ams=67, dur.=15 h) AND 20.02 (G2, Ams=67, dur.=15 h) ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER. ACCORDING IZMIRAN IT WAS TWO MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS 19.02 (G1, Ams=39, dur.=12 h) AND 20.02 (G1, Ams=33, dur.=15 h). 23.02 AT THE END OF THE DAY THE 9-HOUR SUBSTORM IS NOTED: ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA ITS INTENSITY WAS G1, IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE - G0. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THE ACTIVE ON FEBRUARY 24 AND 27-28. THE PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM DOESN'T EXCEED 30%. IN THE OTHERS DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AS A WHOLE ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru