Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 24 - 30.03.2014, Forecast on 31.03 - 6.04.2014, Carrington Rotation 2148 ( 11.06.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMINDER AT THE MODERATE LEVELS. THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=077+10/-9. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 5 - 8 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND THE MODERATE LEVELS OF SUN- SPOTFORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VA- LUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=070+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 29.03, THE MODERATE - 28 AND 30.03, AND LOW LEVEL - IN OTHER DAYS. WITHIN THE PERIOD WE- RE OBSERVED 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CO- RONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 50 CME, NINE OF WHICH WAS THE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II". ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME 28.03 1904 1918 1939 N11W21L145 M2.0/SN 1.5E-2 12017 II/2 CME 28.03 2344 2351 >2358 N10W22L145 M2.6/ 1.5E-2 12017 II/2 29.03 1735 1748 1816 N11W32L145 X1.0/2B 4.2E-2 12017 II/3 CME 30.03 1147 1155 1224 N08W43L145 1N/M2.1 1.5E-2 12017 II/2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 25.03 >1158 <0603 N04W07L169 7 28.03 2213 2237 S13W55L151 5 29.03 0150 0156 N23E35L061 12 C2.4 12024 29.03 >0949 <2319 S01E53L043 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE- VELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - S55L172 S65L132 S70L157 S58L174 26.03 1 SDO, SOHO,.... CH + N05L091 N00L089 S05L101 S03L104 01.04 1 SDO, SOHO,.... CH - N30L048 N25L043 N18L058 N22L061 05.04 8+5 SDO, SOHO,.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 22.03/0030 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELDS. 26-28.03 THE SIGN OF MAGNETIC FIELDS WAS CHANGED REPEA- TEDLY/ THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 31.03. íáòô 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 íáòô Wus 132 114 123 145 135 132 122 F10.7 159 153 153 145 146 143 148 èbcg B6.8 B5.8 ÷5.6 ÷5.5 ÷5.0 ÷7.3 B8.9 GOES Sp 740 650 520 620 680 470 550 mvh N 1 2 2 3 2 IMF + +/- - - - -/+ + áóå Å>2 1.2E+5 2.2å+5 5.6å+4 3.5å+4 9.9å+4 1.0å+6 9.0E+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 4 7 10 7 7 7 4 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 7 11 8 8 11 7 7 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE SMALL SOLAR PROTON EVENT WAS REGISTERED 29.03 FROM FLARE X1.0/2B: Pr (>10 MeV): tO-1748 UT; tmax -3 pfu -2230 UT; te -30/05 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AS A WHOLE ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. ONLY 1-2.04 THE LEVEL OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE BECAUSE OF ICME ARRIVAL FROM FLARE 29.03 AND THE EARTH's PASSAGE OVER HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM NEAR EQUATOR SOLAR CORONAL HOLE IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NO MORE THAN 20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru