Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 21 - 27.04.2014 ç., Forecast on 28.04 - 4.05.2014, Carrington Rotation 2149,2150 (7,36.04; 04,62.05.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED FROM HIGH LEVEL (21.04) TO THE AVERAGE, CONSTANTLY GOING DOWN BY THE PERIOD END. AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=59+42/-14. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 8-3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE MODERATE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT- FORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RE- LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 25.04, AND THE LOW LEVEL - IN OTHER DAYS. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE OBSERVED 9 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTI- ONS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 43 CME, SIX OF WHICH WERE THE TYPE OF "PARTIAL HALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 25.04 0017 0027 >0038 S15W90L204 X1.3/SF 1.1E-01 12046 II/2 CME DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 21.04 >0012 <1317 N60W10L172 10 21.04 2103 2130 S25W22L250 6 22.04 >0024 <1305 N28E58L091 15 22.04 >0857 <2326 N17E44L105 19 20.04 <1035 <1208 S22E10L178 6 24.04 1339 1651 S22W16L138 9 24.04 0820 0945 N14W37L146 11 27.04 0639 1027 N22W19L096 13 27.04 1416 1833 S28W04L087 12 27.04 1922 2040 S21E22L061 8 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE- VELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + S03L137 S10L127 S15L130 S08L138 26.04 1 SDO, SOHO, ... CH + N60L119 N48L099 N38L101 N42L121 26.04 1 SDO, SOHO, ... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 21.04/03 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 28.04. APRIL 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 APRIL Wus 168 136 105 071 073 046 084 F10.7 159 145 136 130 125 121 118 èbcg B7.9 B2.8 ÷7.8 ÷5.1 ÷6.1 ÷4.4 B2.9 GOES Sp 1060 760 810 450 390 210 520 mvh N 1 1 3 IMF +/- - - - - - - áóå Å>2 7.4E+5 1.0å+6 2.3å+6 5.1å+6 4.0å+7 9.5å+7 1.1E+8 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 19 4 6 10 8 6 3 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 13 8 9 15 15 10 7 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 25.04/1835 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 25-27.04. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BE EXPECTED 28 - 30.04. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND ONLY 24-25.04 BY DATA IZMIRAN WAS ACTIVE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru