-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON APRIL 2014 HAS MADE Wapr.= 84.7, THAT GIVES FOR 63 MONTH (2013, OCTOBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*oct. = 75.0 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- XI 2013 - XII 2013 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 73 - 78. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2014, APRIL ACCORDING DATA OF 69 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 72 6.. 91 11.. 46 16..141 21..113 26.. 34Í 2.. 86 7.. 86 12.. 55 17..150í 22.. 93 27.. 58 3..100 8.. 88 13.. 60 18..134 23.. 64 28.. 60 4..119 9.. 71 14.. 79 19..134 24.. 54 29.. 58 5..102 10.. 49 15..109 20..130 25.. 43 30.. 62 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2014, APRIL Fapr.= 143.9 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2014, APRIL Ap apr.= 7.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.04 - 4.05.2014, Forecast on 5 - 12.05.2014, Carrington Rotation 2149,2150 (7,36.04; 04,62.05.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE, CONST- ANTLY GOING DOWN BY THE THREE LAST DAY OF PERIOD. ESTIMATED, WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 59+18/-12. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 5-6 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO OF WHICH WERE THE MIDDLE SIZE. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE MODERATE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVI- TY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W= 050+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE THE LOW LEVEL. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE OB- SERVED 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 46 CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE TYPE OF "PAR- TIAL HALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 29.04 >0107 <1253 S57E44L012 8 29.04 1526 1732 S31W67L123 12 01.05 >0101 <1339 N04E15L015 14 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LE- VELS, THOUGH IN AR12051 THERE WERE CONDITIONS FOR OCCURRENCE OF AVE- RAGE SOLAR FLARES 5-6.05. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + S08L357 S12L352 S16L353 S11L358 08.05 1 SDO, SOHO, ... CH - S35L001 S39L350 S42L004 S37L010 07.05 1 SDO, SOHO, ... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 02.05/21 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. HOWEVER FROM 30.04/10 UT THE EARTH PASSED "+" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDER -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON MAY 5. APRIL 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 MAY Wus 079 080 081 093 114 121 128 F10.7 121 120 124 126 135 136 132 èbcg B2.5 B2.7 ÷2.7 ÷2.8 ÷5.4 ÷5.6 B5.5 GOES Sp 620 570 540 650 1010 1060 780 mvh N 1 1 1 1 IMF +/- - -/+ + +/- - - áóå Å>2 3.2E+7 2.3å+7 4.8å+4 5.0å+5 2.2å+6 3.6å+6 3.0E+4 GOES Ie>2 1234 515 pfu GOES Ap 5 7 18 6 3 7 15 nT áÒ Dst nT KéOTO Amsc 7 8 19 7 7 10 16 nT éúíéòáî -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 25.04/1835 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 28.04. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BE NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HOWEVER 30.04 AND 4.05 ITS WERE ACTIVE: IN THE FIRST DAY ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN (G1) AND THE CENTER IN BOULDER (G0) THE SUBSTORM OF 9 h. DURATION WAS NOTED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru