Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 5 - 11.05.2014, Forecast on 12 - 19.05.2014, Carrington Rotation 2150 (04,62.05.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE, CONST- ANTLY GOING UP BY THE LAST DAY OF PERIOD. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERA- GE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=77+20/-14. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 8-10 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO OF WHICH WERE THE MIDDLE SIZE. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE MODERATE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVI- TY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 8.05, THE AVERAGE - 6-7.05 AND LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAY. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE OBSERVED 3 SOLAR FI- LAMENT EJECTIONS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OB- SERVED 51 CME, TWO OF WHICH WERE THE TYPE OF "PARTIAL HALO III" AND 6 - "PARTIAL HALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 06.05 0841 0903 0937 S15W34L056 M1.8/SF 3.5E-2 12051 06.05 2201 2209 >2220 S10W57L056 M1.0/SF 7.7E-3 12051 07.05 1546 1629 >1703 N15E50L056 SF/M1.2 2.9E-2 12051 08.05 0920 1007 ~1125 N08E54L258 M5.2/2B 4.7E-2 12056 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 09.05 1304 1441 S35E60L234 6 10.05 >1718 >0435 S53T59L222 16 10.05 >1718 >0435 N09W10L291 11 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + S08L357 S12L352 S16L353 S11L358 08.05 1 SDO, SOHO, ... CH - S35L001 S39L350 S42L004 S37L010 07.05 1 SDO, SOHO, ... óî - S30L308 S60L280 S65L318 S32L338 10.05 3 SDO, SOHO, ... CH + N03L241 S01L236 S16L240 S14L239 16.05 1 SDO, SOHO, ... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 08.05/18 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. HOWEVER FROM 05.05/22 UT THE EARTH PASSED "+" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDER -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON MAY, 14. MAY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 MAY Wus 131 137 105 124 123 125 161 F10.7 139 139 146 148 152 152 164 èbcg B8.1 B7.3 ÷8.3 ÷7.8 ÷6.6 ÷7.2 B8.1 GOES Sp 890 1130 1010 1180 1320 1080 1050 mvh N 1 1 1 1 1 3 IMF +/- - -/+ + +/- - - áóå Å>2 5.8E+4 3.3å+5 4.5å+5 7.5å+4 1.0å+5 3.8å+5 9.7E+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 9 2 4 20 7 9 14 nT áÒ Dst -12 -48 -44 -39 -39 nT KIOTO Amsc 13 7 8 16 9 11 15 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BE NOT EXPECTED. The GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND QUITE And ONLY 8.05 according to the CENTER IN BOULDER MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, by Ams=22, dur.= 21 h. ) WAS NOTED. ACCORDING IZMIRAN IT WAS THE SUB- STORM (G0) LASTING 3 HOURS. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru