-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2014 HAS MADE Wmay= 75.2, THAT GIVES FOR 64 MONTH (2013, NOVEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*nov. = 75.4 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- XI 2013 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 75.4 THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2014, MAY ACCORDING DATA OF 66 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 59 6.. 99 11..100 16.. 89 21.. 57 26.. 61 31.. 38 2.. 77 7.. 80 12..103 17..101 22.. 44 27.. 52 3.. 82 8.. 88 13.. 89 18.. 92 23.. 61 28.. 47 4.. 85 9.. 93 14..111M 19.. 68 24.. 73 29.. 32m 5.. 95 10.. 82 15..104 20.. 58 25.. 73 30.. 37 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2014, MAY Fmay= 129.7 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2014, MAY Ap may= 5.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.05 - 01.06.2014, Forecast on 02 - 09.06.2014, Carrington Rotation 2150, 2151 (04,62.05; 31,83.05.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, GRADUALLY DECREASING BY THE PERIOD END. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=47+19/-14. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 6-4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050 +10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A LOW LEVEL AND ONLY 30.04 ON VERY LOW. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE OBSERVED 5 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS. BY SOHO AND STE- REO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 43 CME, 4 OF WHICH WERE OF "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 27.05 >0105 <1228 N00E23L033 6 29.05 >0029 <1238 S03E15L015 5 29.05 >0921 <1237 N25W48L078 12 01.06 >0125 <1125 N05E26L321 4 01.06 >0918 >2331 N23W46L036 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - S02L012 S04L007 S19L008 S10L014 3.06 2 G0 SDO, SOHO, ... CH - S40L344 S60L327 S70L344 S38L357 3.06 2 SDO, SOHO, ... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 27.05/21 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD THOUGH 29 AND 30.05 SIGN OF THE FIELD REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDER +/-THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON JUNE, 4. MAY 26 27 28 29 30 31 01 MAY Wus 110 096 072 055 056 056 108 F10.7 108 106 099 103 102 104 103 èbcg B3.8 B3.2 ÷2.5 ÷2.4 ÷2.4 ÷2.5 B2.5 GOES Sp 510 210 500 100 110 130 260 mvh N 1 1 2 IMF - -/+ + +/- -/+ + + áóå Å>2 7.7E+6 1.4å+7 2.3å+6 6.1å+5 1.2å+5 2.1E+5 1.8E+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 3 4 4 6 9 4 4 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 8 11 9 12 15 9 8 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BE NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE ABD UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru