Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 02 - 08.06.2014, Forecast on 09 - 16.06.2014, Carrington Rotation 2151 (31,83.05.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, GRADUALLY RAISING BY THE PERIOD END, AND ALREADY 7.06 HIGH LEVEL IS NOTED. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=070+23/-36. ON THE VISI- BLE DISK OF THE SUN WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 4-7 GROUPS OF THE SUN- SPOTS THREE OF WHICH FOR ONE DAYS GREW TO CATEGORY OF AVERAGES. NEXT WEEK AVERAGE AND, PROBABLY, HIGH LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING AC- TIVITY IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON A MIDDLE LEVEL JUNE 2 AND 6, ON THE VERY LOW - 5, AND ON THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. FOR THE PERIOD 6 EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS WERE OBSERVED. ONE OF THEM, ON JUNE 4, WAS ACCOMPA- NIED BY THE SMALL FLARE OF LARGE AREA ("HAYDER" FLARE) AND "GALO" CME CAUSED IN THE ENVIRONMENT SPACE THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2). BY DATA CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 44 CME ONE OF WHICH WAS THE HALO TYPE, 1 - "PARTIAL HALO III", AND 5 - "PARTIAL HALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 03.06 0358 0409 0454 S05E30L301 M1.3/2N 8.6E-3 12077 05.06 1926 1931 1941 S12E26L269 M1.4/SF 2.5E-3 12080 III/2 VI/2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 04.06 >0456 <2333 N15W66L013 12 04.06 0900 1400 S24E63L244 22 CME/H 06.06 >0139 <1212 N16E31L212 5 12082 06.06 1748 2002 S26W57L328 10 07.06 >0900 <0310 N14E52L216 11 08.06 1209 1509 N25E32L232 7 08.06 1526 1640 N04-S04 E29-E17 L225-247 17 In the latter case, KVV observed 2 observatories, their coordinates and times are integrated. -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND, IN SEPARATE DAYS, AT THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - S30L287 S45L282 S60L307 S46L320 7.06 2 SDO, SOHO, ... CH - S02L281 S28L270 S32L273 S07L289 7.06 1 G0 SDO, SOHO, ... CH + S02L281 S28L270 S32L273 S07L289 7.06 1 G0 SDO, SOHO, ... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 4.06/05 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDER -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON JUNE, 9-10. JUNE 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 JUNE Wus 056 061 070 102 132 155 144 F10.7 105 107 105 111 133 137 149 èbcg B2.4 B2.8 ÷2.3 ÷2.7 ÷3.7 ÷4.3 B5.1 GOES Sp 210 200 220 330 550 950 1130 mvh N 1 1 2 2 IMF +/-/+ + +/- - - - - áóå Å>2 1.8E+5 2.1å+5 4.8å+4 3.0å+4 3.3å+4 4.2E+4 2.6E+4 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 5 6 5 7 8 15 37 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 8 10 9 10 9 13 37 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. MOREOVER, THE EXCEPTIONAL CASE, FROM 4.06 THE FLUX OF RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS SURELY KEEPS ON LEVEL E+4. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BE NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED BEFORE ARRIVAL TO THE ENVIRONMENT SPACE OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE OF SI-07/1657 UT AFTER WHICH THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=33, dur.= 9 h.) ACCOR- DING DATA TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER, AND (G2, Ams=35, ÄÌÉÔ. = 6 h.) AC- CORDING IZMIRAN DATA. THIS MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WAS CAUSED BY DSF ON JUNE, 4. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru