-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JUNE 2014 HAS MADE Wjune= 71.0, THAT GIVES FOR 65 MONTH (2013, DECEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*dec. = 76.0 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- I 2014 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 78 THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2014, JUNE ACCORDING DATA OF 69 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 44 6.. 82 11..120 16.. 58 21.. 64 26.. 46 2.. 43 7.. 92 12..136í 17.. 66 22.. 62 27.. 46 3.. 51 8.. 98 13..126 18.. 83 23.. 53 28.. 49 4.. 44 9..108 14.. 95 19.. 66 24.. 28Í 29.. 64 5.. 60 10..112 15.. 51 20.. 55 25.. 38 30.. 91 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2014, JUNE Fjune = 122.0 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2014, JUNE Ap june = 6.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 30.06 - 06.07.2014, Forecast on 07 - 14.07.2014, Carrington Rotation 2252 ( 28,03.06.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY AFTER JUNE, 1 REMAINED AT THE HIGH LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 112+42/-38. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 8-11 SUNSPOTS GROUPS FROM WHICH TWO WERE THE MIDDLE SIZE AND ONE - THE LARGE SIZE: AR12109 (S08L220, Sp=830 mvh) left on a visible disk of the Sun on June 1, by June 4 the area reached level of big group and continues to increase the area, but remains quiet, while.. NEXT WEEK THE HIGH AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX- PECTED W = 070+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON A THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT JUNE 1 AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. FOR THE PERIOD 3 EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS WERE OBSER- VED. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 34 CME, ONE OF WHICH WERE THE TYPE OF "PARTIAL HALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 01.07 1105 1123 >1159 N12E60L261 V1.4/ 3.5E-2 12106 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 05.07 >0040 <1308 N36E24L230 16 05.07 0724 <1243 N38E33L198 11 05.07 >1715 <0505 S43E59L221 19 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND, IN SEPARATE DAYS, AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - N08L003 S05L000 S12L001 S02L005 30.06 2 SDO, SOHO, ... CH + N01L325 S05L317 S08L325 S05L334 03.07 1 SDO, SOHO, ... CH + N06L254 S05L252 S10L254 S02L259 09.07 2 SDO, SOHO, .. R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 03.07/05 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDER -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON JULY, 08. JUNE 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 JUNE Wus 124 154 180 179 199 213 256 F10.7 141 152 169 178 188 193 201 èbcg B7.7 B9.6 B8.9 B8.8 C1.0 B9.6 ó1.2 GOES Sp 750 850 1260 1430 1830 2090 2230 mvh N 1 1 1 1 1 1 IMF + + + +/- - - + áóå Å>2 1.3E+5 1.9å+5 3.2å+5 2.4å+5 1.8å+5 2.6E+5 2.7E+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 7 4 4 7 5 3 4 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 9 12 11 11 9 8 9 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BE NOT EXPECTED. ALL DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru