Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 21 - 27.07.2014, Forecast on 28.07 - 03.08.2014, Carrington Rotation 2152, 2153 (28,3.06.; 25,24.07.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT VERY LOW LEVEL ON JULY 21 AND ON THE AVERAGE - IN OTHER DAYS, WITH THE TENDENCY OF INCRE- ASE TO THE WEEKEND -RECURRENT INCREASE ALREADY 7 ROTATION. ESTIMA- TED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 036+30/-26. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 0 - 7 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 070+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON AT THE LOW LEVEL AT JULY 24, 25, 27 AND AT THE MIDDLE - IN OTHER DAYS. FOR THE PERIOD 4 EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FI- LAMENTS WERE OBSERVED. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 32 CME - ONE WAS THE TYPE OF "PARTIAL HALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 21.07 >1151 <0655 S47E47L355 7 22.07 >0058 <1258 N25E06L024 6 25.07 >0933 <2330 S28E17L330 9 26.07 >0934 <2334 N10W53L027 11 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, IN SEPARATE DAYS, AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - N05L012 S05L004 S15L012 S05L015 26.07 3 SDO,SOHO.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 24.07/12 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDER +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON JULY, 30 - 31. JULY 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 JULY Wus 016 040 055 055 065 076 110 F10.7 090 093 099 104 107 117 121 èbcg B2.1 ÷1.8 ÷2.0 B2.5 ÷2.8 B4.2 ÷2.8 GOES Sp 070 180 180 280 220 240 380 mvh N 2 1 3 1 IMF +/- - - -/+ + + + áóå Å>2 2.0E+5 3.2å+4 7.5å+4 4.0å+4 3.3å+4 2.7E+4 3.2E+4 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 5 5 6 5 6 7 5 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 7 7 11 11 8 9 9 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BE NOT EXPECTED. ALL DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru