Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 04 - 10.08.2014, Forecast on 11 - 18.08.2014, Carrington Rotation 2153 (25,24.07.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL BUT 07.07 - AT THE HIGH. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELA- TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 065+ 30/-27. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 4 - 6 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOTS GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WHICH CAN FALL IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD TO THE LOW IS EXPECTED. ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON AT THE LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS OF PERIOD. FOR THE PERIOD 1 EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS WAS OBSERVED. BY DATA OF CO- RONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 22 CME - 3 WERE THE TYPE OF "PARTIAL HALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 06.08 >1719 <0439 S27W40L228 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, IN SEPARATE DAYS, AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N50L210 B35L188 N28L223 N35L228 06.08 1 SDO,SOHO.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 10.07/10 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDER -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON AUGUST, 20. AUGUST 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 AUGUST Wus 111 093 119 158 101 111 064 F10.7 139 139 137 136 123 113 108 èbcg B5.5 ÷5.4 ÷4.8 B6.0 ÷7.8 B3.9 ÷3.4 GOES Sp 540 450 480 570 570 460 320 ÍÄÐ N 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + +/- áóå Å>2 1.8E+5 1.2å+6 1.2å+7 2.8å+7 1.4å+7 1.3E+7 1.1E+7 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 12 11 7 6 8 3 9 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 12 13 10 10 10 6 9 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluence e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BE NOT EXPECTED. ALL DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru