Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 11 - 17.08.2014,
                Forecast on 18 - 25.08.2014,
Carrington Rotations 2153, 2154 (25,24.07; 21,46.08.2014)
 
 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN  WAS  AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. 
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE  VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER 
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 059+14/-18. ON THE VI-
SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 4 - 8 SMALL QUITE SUN-
SPOTS GROUPS.

 NEXT WEEK  THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WHICH 
CAN FALL IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD TO THE LOW IS EXPECTED. 
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED 
W = 050+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A LOW LEVEL ON AUGUST 11, 15-16 AND 17. FOR 
THE PERIOD TWO EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENT ONE OF WHICH 15.08 
WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT CME AND 18-19.08 CAN CAUSE GEOMAG-
NETIC DISTURBACE. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OB-
SERVED 31 CME  ONE OF WHICH WAS THE GALO TYPE FROM THE EJECTION OF 
FILAMENT MENTIONED ABOVE AND TWO - "PARTIAL GALO II".

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FLARES  to   tm  te   c/p local. Class  E(1-8A)   AR   RII/IV   CME
                                X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF     to      te   c/p local.     l in deg.  Fl    AR     CME
15.08 >0949   <2322  S24W32L102       6
15.08 ~1630          S13W05L075      23                CME/1812/289
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, IN SEPARATE DAYS, 
AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE   R  G   Observatories
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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 AFTER 17.08/2030 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. AFTER 14.07/01 UT THE SIGN OF SECTOR WAS "+". THE FOL-
LOWING SECTOR BOUNDER -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON AUGUST, 21.

AUGUST    11      12    13     14     15     16     17       AUGUST
Wus      082     080   068    108    119    099    121
F10.7    105     104   103    103    113    112    115      
èbcg    B3.0   ÷2.8   ÷3.2   B2.5   ÷3.3   B3.5   ÷3.3       GOES
Sp       400    340    290    340    420    500    640  mvh   
N         2      1             3      1      1             
IMF       -      -      -     -/+     +      +     +/-        áóå
Å>2   1.3E+7 1.9å+6 6.2å+6 9.8å+6 7.7å+6 6.3E+6 1.8E+6       GOES
Ie>2                                                    pfu  GOES 
Ap        6      13     6      4      4      3      8    nT   áÒ
Dst                                                      nT  KIOTO
Amsc      11     17     9      6      8      6      11   nT  IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL BE NOT EXPECTED.

ALL DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.  
ON AUGUST 18-19 GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE GROWTH BECAUSE OF ICME ARRI- 
VAL FROM FILAMENT EJECTION 15.08 IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC
STORM NO MORE THAN 5%.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru