Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 18 - 24.08.2014, Forecast on 25 - 31.08.2014, Carrington Rotations 2153, 2154 (25,24.07; 21,46.08.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 067+15/-13. ON THE VI- SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 6 - 8 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WHICH CAN FALL IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD TO THE LOW IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A HIGH LEVEL ON AUGUCT 24, MIDDLE - ON 21 -22/08 AND THE LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. FOR THE PERIOD FIVE EJE- CTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENT ONE OF WHICH 22.08 WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT CME AND 26.08 CAN CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBACE. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 22 CME 3 OF WHICH WERE THE "PARTIAL GALO II" TYPE. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 21.08 1319 1331 >1342 N11E88L276 M3.4/SF 2.6E-2 12149 IV/2 22.08 ~0609 0628 >0718 N09E76L276 M1.2/1F 7.3E-3 12149 22.08 0804 0834 0940 N10E71L276 2B/C2.6 1.2E-3 12149 24.08 1200 1217 1310 S07E75l255 M5.9/2B 3.9E-2 12151 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 18.08 >0939 <2323 S20W34L051 10 22.08 >0941 <2327 S02W48L022 20 CME 24.08 >0940 <2317 S31E41L266 16 24.08 >0940 <2317 N04W32L339 6 24.08 1338 1640 S29E55L252 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, IN SEPARATE DAYS, AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + S02L259 S03L258 S10L275 S09L277 30.08 4 A SDO,SOHO.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 24.08/01 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. 14 - 23.08 THE SIGN OF SECTOR WAS "+". ON AUGUST 17-19 THE SECTOR SIGN REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BORDER - / + THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON AUGUST 27. AUGUST 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 AUGUST Wus 092 084 089 128 139 124 128 F10.7 111 111 118 128 126 132 141 èbcg B2.7 ÷2.6 ÷3.8 B5.8 ÷5.3 B5.0 ÷5.9 GOES Sp 510 460 320 450 660 800 890 mvh N 1 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + +/- áóå Å>2 2.8E+5 1.5å+5 1.6å+5 9.4å+6 1.1å+7 1.1E+7 1.2E+7 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 3 19 5 10 4 4 4 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 9 18 13 11 7 8 6 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluence e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BE NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET THE ENTIRE PE- RIOD, EXCEPT AUGUST 19 WHEN AT THE END OF THE DAYS ALL MIDDLE-LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES NOTED THE INTENSIVE 6-HOUR SUBSTORM. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. ON AUGUST 26 GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE GROWTH BECAUSE OF ICME ARRIVAL FROM FILAMENT EJECTION 22.08 IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM NO MORE THAN 5%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru