Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01- 07.09.2014, Forecast on 08 - 15.09.2014, Carrington Rotations 2154 (21,46.08.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 067+35/-12. ON THE VI- SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 5 - 10 SUNSPOTS GROUPS ONE OF WHICH WAS A MIDDLE SIZE AND ONE - LARGE: AR12157 (S12L1OO, Sp max = 540 mvh) - appearance of east limb on September 3 quite developed sunspot group; average level of fla- re activity. NEXT WEEK THE HIGH AND AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELA- TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A MIDDLE LEVEL ON SEPTEMBER 3 AND 6, AND THE LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. FOR THE PERIOD 4 EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENT. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 39 CME 1 OF WHICH WAS THE TYPE OF "GALO" AND 6-THE "PARTIAL GALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 03.09 1320 1355 >1423 S15E87L100 M2.5/SF 6.6E-2 12155 óíå 06.09 1650 1709 1727 S15E52L100 M1.1/SF 1.5E-2 12157 CME DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 01.09 >1533 <0949 S06W26L228 7 02.09 1340 1556 N40E06L229 44 CME 04.09 >0050 <1457 S28W39L201 10 06.09 >1325 <0721 N44E06L130 25 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND ON THE AVERAGE LEVELS. IN AR12157 LARGE FLARES ARE POSSIBLE ONLY AT EMERGENCE OF THE NEW MAG- NETIC FLUX. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N53L167 N12L134 N10L138 N35L169 08.09 1 SDO,SOHO.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 06.09/05 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BORDER - / + THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON SEPTEMBER, 10. óåîôñâòø 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 óåîôñâòø Wus 094 105 092 136 124 170 157 F10.7 127 136 138 146 144 157 151 èbcg B4.5 ó1.2 ó1.0 ó1.0 ÷9.1 ó1.1 ÷9.8 GOES Sp 640 650 560 1060 850 1380 1210 mvh N 1 1 3 1 3 IMF + + + + + +/- - áóå Å>2 9.6E+7 1.5å+8 7.9å+7 7.3å+7 8.6å+7 4.1E+7 1.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 3504 6112 3969 2420 4242 pfu GOES Ap 13 10 9 8 7 9 7 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 12 13 8 8 11 13 8 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 30/1335 UT AND PROCEEDED 1-5.09 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru