Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 15 - 21.09.2014,
                Forecast on 22 - 29.09.2014,
 Carrington Rotations 2154, 2155 (21,46.08; 17,72.09.2014)
 
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ALL 
PERIODE. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 050+5/-7. ON THE 
VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 5 - 7 SUNSPOTS GROUPS
ONE OF WHICH WAS A MIDDLE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTI-
VITY IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF 
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A MIDDLE LEVEL ON SEPTEMBER 18, AND THE LOW 
LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. THERE ARE 7 EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENT. 
BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 38 CME, TWO 
OF WHICH WERE THE TYPE OF "PARTIAL GALO II". 

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FLARES  to   tm  te   c/p local. Class  E(1-8A)   AR   RII/IV   CME
                                X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
18.09  0837 0841 >0853 N08E70L290 M1.2/SN  4.4E-03 12169

DSF     to      te   c/p local.     l in deg.  Fl    AR     CME
18.09 >0949   <2247  S15W21L008       17           12165
19.09  >0950  <2252  S29E50L284       19
19.09  >1116  <2252  N26W50L024        8 
19.09  >1116  <0751  N14W73L047       20
19.09   2133   2234  N32E10L324        7
20.09  >0943  <2255  S17W15L335       11
20.09   2255   0142  N25E12L308       13 
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND THEC SMALLER PROBABILI-
TY ON THE AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE   R  G   Observatories
CH  - S20L022 S40L002 S45L027 S30L032   18.09  1      SDO,SOHO....
CH  - S02L274 S10L266 S12L274 S08L286   26.09  4  0   SDO,SOHO....
The last CH was formed ~ on July 1 - 5, 2014, an excellent task to 
track process of CH appearance and evolution! ! ! ! 
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 22.09/02 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BORDER -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 
ON OCTOBER, 3.

SEPTEMBER 15      16    17     18     19     20     21      SEPTEMBER
Wus      092     085   091    075    091    075    072
F10.7    133     133   125    120    122    119    124      
èbcg    B5.7    ÷5.5  ÷6.1   ÷5.3   ÷4.8   ÷4.3   ÷4.9       GOES
Sp       350     290   330    230    250    300    590  mvh   
N                       3             1      2            
IMF       -      -      -      -      -      -      -        áóå
Å>2   1.1E+5 1.1å+5 2.8å+4 4.4å+4 2.7å+4 2.5E+4 8.6E+4       GOES
Ie>2                                                    pfu  GOES 
Ap        3      6      7      8      23     5      6    nT   áÒ
Dst                                  -37                 nT  KéOTO
Amsc      5     10      8      9      18     6      5    nT  éúíéòáî
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluence e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL NO OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT 27.09 - 03.10.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUIET AND UNSETTLED PRIOR TO THE BEGIN-
NING OF SEPTEMBER 19 WHEN ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER, THE 9-HOUR 
MAGNETIC SUBSTORM  IS NOTED INTENSIVE (G1).  ACCORDING  IZMIRAN DATA THE 
SUBSTORM HAD INTENSITY (G0) AND LASTED 6 HOURS. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAG-
NETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. AC-
TIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS 22 AND 24.09  WHEN TO THE EARTH DISTURBANCES 
FROM SOLAR FIBLAMENTS EJECTIONS 18 AND 20.09  WILL COME IS POSSIBLE, AND 
THE EARTH WILL BE CROSSED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE LAST CORONAL HO-
LE. PROBABILITY OF THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM NO MORE THAN 15%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru