Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 22 - 28.09.2014, Forecast on 29.09 - 05.10.2014, Carrington Rotation 2155 (17,72.09.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE AND HIGH LEVELC. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=082+40/-36. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 5 - 8 SUNSPOTS GROUPS ONE OF WHICH WAS A MIDDLE SIZE AND ONE - A LARGE: AR 12172 (S09L242, Sp max = 570 mvh, comparatively quite). Along with AR12173 (S15L252, Sp max = 130 mvh) formed Complex of Active Regions. NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPEC- TED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX- PECTED W = 050+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGHE LEVEL ON 28 SEPTEMBER, THE MIDDLE LEVEL ON SEPTEMBER 23 AND 27, THE LOW LEVEL -IN OTHER DAYS. THERE ARE 5 EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENT. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 42 CME, TWO OF WHICH WERE THE TYPE OF "GALO", ONE - "PARTIAL GALO III" AND TWO - "PARTIAL GALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 23.09 2301 2316 0010 S13E33L242 2B/M2.3 2.2E-03 12172 II/2 IV/1 CME 27.09 0832 0837 0840 M1.0 3.4E-03 12178 28.09 0239 0258 0441 S13W23L250 M5.1/2B 7.9E-02 12173 II/1 IV/1 28.09 1634 1733 1800 S15W30L250 M1.0/SF 2.9E-02 12173 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 23.09 >1559 <0534 S23W55L236 9 24.09 >0948 <2316 N45E18L232 5 25.09 >0953 <2237 S15E02L252 14 12171 25.09 2030 2100 S13W01L255 10 12171 28.09 >2252 <0941 S14E35L180 11 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LE- VELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - S02L274 S10L266 S12L274 S08L286 26.09 4 0 SDO,SOHO.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 22.09/02 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BORDER -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON OCTOBER, 3. SEPTEMBER 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 SEPTEMBER Wus 087 090 076 139 203? 159 200 F10.7 130 138 145 158 170 181 1181 èbcg B4.7 ÷5.7 ÷6.1 ó1.0 ó1.1 ó1.0 ó1.3 GOES Sp 670 830 590 690 1020 1180 1370 mvh N 1 3 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 4.1E+6 4.4å+6 7.4å+6 2.3å+7 1.9å+7 3.0E+7 3.4E+7 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 9 12 22 14 13 15 9 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 11 12 19 11 16 16 12 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN AT 26.09/1355 AND OBSERVED ON 26-28.09. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT 29.09 - 03.10. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUIET AND UNSETTLED PRIOR TO THE BEGIN- NING OF SEPTEMBER 24 WHEN ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER, THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 25, dur.= 15 Þ.) IS NOTED INTENSIVE (G1). AC- CORDING IZMIRAN DATA THE SUBSTORM HAD INTENSITY (G0) AND LASTED 9 h. 26 AND 27.09 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE ACTIVE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru