Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 03 - 09.11.2014, Forecast on 10 - 17.11.2014, Carrington Rotations 2156, 2157 (15,00.10; 11.30.11.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 058+10/-11. ON THE VI- SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 6 - 4 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS MIDDLE SIZE BUT FLARE ACTIVE: AR12205 (N15L015, CMP 09.11.2014, Sp max = 410 mvh) - appearance from east limb 2.11 and already 3.11 gave out large flare M6.5. The delta configuration in the central part of sunspot group whe- re there are large flares. NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT FORMING ACTIVITY IS EX- PECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL AT 3, 5-7.11, MIDDLE LEVEL - 4 AND 9.11, AND THE LOW - 8.11. THERE ARE THREE EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENTS. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WE- RE OBSERVED > 51 CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "HALO" TYPE, ONE - "PARTIAL GALO III" TYPE AND 9 - THE "PARTIAL GALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 03.11 1123 1153 >1217 N17E89L015 M2.2/ 4.2E-02 12205 II/2 03.11 2215 2240 2322 N14E89L015 M6.5/1F 6.6E-02 12205 II/2 04.11 0759 0838 >0851 N15E28L015 M2.6/SF 7.1E-02 12205 04.11 0842 0904 0935 N15E82L105 1F/M2.3 2.9E-02 12205 CTM/1 LPS 05.11 0926 0947 ~1033 N20E68L015 M7.9/1N 5.2E-02 12205 II/2 05.11 1848 1944 2030 N16E70L015 M3.0/1N 7.8E-02 12205 II/1 1850 1944 2018 N17E65L015 M2.9/1N 06.11 0129 0139 0317 N15E58L015 M3.2/2N 3.0E-02 12205 06.11 0329 0346 0512 N17E58L015 1N/M5.4 7.1E-02 12205 II/1 IV/1 06.11 2153 2216 2252 N14E45L015 M2.5/1N 3.3E-02 12205 07.11 0201 0249 0551 N17E50L015 2N/M2.7 7.6E-02 12205 07.11 0943 1022 >1030 N15E43L015 SF/M1.0 6.9E-03 12205 07.11* 1453 1726 2035 N17E40L015 3B/X1.6 1.5E-01 12205 II/1 IV/2 09.11 1524 1532 1615 N18E14L015 M2.3/1B 1.1E-02 12205 * complexes flare event ó7.0+DSF+ó7.0+è1.6. DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 07.11 1521 1528 N10E51ll352 7 12205 09.11 >0728 <0952 N20W35l052 19 12204 09.11 1059 1307 N02W27L031 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LE- VELS. IN CASE OF EMERGENCE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUX LARGT FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN AR12205. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N38L046 N30L043 N25L047 N32L055 09.11 2 SDO,SOHO.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 30.10/16 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 14.11. NOVEMBER 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 NOVEMBER Wus 093 099 113 107 096 092 078 F10.7 125 129 135 136 146 132 132 èbcg ÷5.1 ÷7.4 ÷7.4 ÷9.9 ÷9.6 ÷6.9 ÷7.1 GOES Sp 330 300 470 580 510 400 420 mvh N 1 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - áóå Å>2 1.8E+7 4.6å+6 6.7å+5 2.3å+6 1.6å+6 6.9E+5 1.4E+6 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 6 18 19 9 11 7 8 nT Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 5 28 11 11 12 8 11 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NO EXPECTED. MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=46, dur.=12 h.) IT IS REGISTERED 4.11 ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN, HOWEVER ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDERE IT WAS THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams= 25, dlit.= 27 h.), PROCEEDED 5. 11. In OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLTD AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED QUITE AND UNSETTLED. NOVEMBER 10, GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC PERTURBED IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE ARRIVAL TO EARTH THE CME OF CLASS X1.6 FLARE. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM NO MORE THEN 20% (GLANCING BLOW). HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru