Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 10 - 16.11.2014, Forecast on 17 - 24.11.2014, Carrington Rotation 2157 (11.30.11.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 054+16/-16. ON THE VI- SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 3 - 6 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS BIG SIZE. IT IS 2 PASSAGE OF THE ONLY GIGANTIC SUNSPOT GROUP (AR12192) OF CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE: AR12209 (S13L264, CMP 18.11.2014, Sp max= 940 mvh) - appearance on east limb at 11.11, it consisting of two interacting parts. In 30 hours on 15-16.11 in tail, northwest part of sunspot group there were the flare of X-ray class 1 large and 2 middle. NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT FORMING ACTIVITY IS EX- PECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL AT 16.11, THE MIDDLE - AT 15.11, AND THE LOW LEVEL -IN OTHER DAYS. THERE IS ONE EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENT. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 26 CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "PARTIAL GALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 15.11 1140 1203 ~1240 S09E63L264 M3.2/SB 2.4E-02 12209 15.11 1850 1944 2050 S13E63L264 M3.7/ 1.3E-02 12209 16.11 1735 1748 >1757 S12E46L254 M5.7/ 4.1E-02 12209 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 11.11 >0954 <2212 S12E09L338 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LE- VELS. IN CASE OF EMERGENCE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUX LARGE FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN AR12209. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N58L279 N55L267 N12L317 N18L325 16.11 2 G1 SDO,SOHO.... CH + N02L271 S02L269 S10L273 S05L286 19.11 6 G0 SDO,SOHO.... The second CH consists of 3 parts and on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/ CH isn't. On last turn I passed it. R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 14.11/0830 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 26.11. NOVEMBER 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 NOVEMBER Wus 063 070 089 104 117 100 091 F10.7 136 142 153 154 161 161 172 èbcg ÷6.6 ÷9.4 ÷8.2 ÷9.3 ÷8.1 ÷7.2 ÷9.5 GOES Sp 410 330 370 300 960 960 1040 mvh N 1 1 2 1 1 IMF - - - - -/+ + + áóå Å>2 2.5E+5 7.6å+4 3.3å+5 6.9å+5 4.9å+5 5.7E+6 8.7E+7 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 24 10 8 5 12 15 23 nT Dst -55 -23 nT KIOTO Amsc 21 14 9 6 14 14 16 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS BEGAN AT 16.11. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 17 - 22.11. SUBSTORM INTENSITY OF G1 WAS LASTING 9 HOURS IT IS REGISTERED ON NOVEM- BER, 10 ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN AND THE CENTER IN BOULDERE DATA. THE SECOND INDIGNATION - SMALL MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Amc=25, dlit. = 21 h.) IZMIRAN is REGISTERED 15 - 16.11 ACCORDING TO THE CENTER In BOLDERE DATA, HOWEVER FROM IZMIRAN DA- TA IS THERE WAS A SUBSTORM of G0 INTENSITY AND ONLY 3 HOURS DURATION. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE ON NOVEMBER 16 AND 19, BUT IN BOTH CASES PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NO MORE THAN 15%. IN OTHER DAYS THE UNSETTLED AND QUIET GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS MOST PROBABLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru