-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2014 HAS MADE Wnov.= 70.1, THAT GIVES FOR 64 MONTHS (2014, may) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC- LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*may = 80.5 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE - APRIL 2014 THE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 81.9 THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2014, NOVEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 73 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 61 6.. 68 11.. 60 16.. 70 21.. 51 26.. 94 2.. 66 7.. 72 12.. 59 17.. 67 22.. 57 27..103 3.. 76 8.. 58 13.. 76 18.. 52 23.. 53 28.. 97 4.. 74 9.. 51 14.. 69 19.. 44m 24.. 70 29..106í 5.. 93 10.. 47 15.. 75 20.. 50 25.. 79 30..104 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2014, NOVEMBER Fnov.= 154.8 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2014, NOVEMBER Ap nov.= 8.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 08.11.2014, Forecast on 08 - 15.12.2014, Carrington Rotation 2157, 2158 (11.30.11; 8,61.12.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE HIGH AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELA- TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 064+32/-29. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSER- VED 9-4 SUNSPOT GROUPS, AMONG WHICH ONE BIG SIZE WERE CONS- TANTLY OBSERVED: AR12222 (S20L082, CMP 01.12.2014, Sp max=770 mvh) IN WHICH, AT LAST, AFTER EMERGENCE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUX 4 - 5.12, IN 28 HOURS ONE LARGE AND 3 FLARES OF AVERAGES OF CLASSES WERE OCCURENCED. NEXT WEEK EXPECTED AVERAGE, AND BY END OF THE PERIOD POSSIBLE AND THE LOW SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL FT 4.11, THE MIDDLE - 1 AND 5.11 AND THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE ARE 1 EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENTS. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED >15 CME. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 01.12 0626 0641 0718 S21E17L083 M1.8/1N 2.3E-2 12222 04.12 0736 0810 0932 S24W27L083 1N/M1.3 1.1E-2 12222 04.12 1805 1825 >1856 S21W28L083 M6.1/ 1.2E-1 12222 05.12 1133 1225 >1247 S23W41L083 M1.5/ 3.1E-2 12222 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 0712 >1027 <2205 S42E18L346 8 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories SOUTH POLAR CORONAL HOLE ONLY R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 27.11/03 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 12.12. DECEMBER 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 DECEMBER Wus 160 146 128 137 097 073 058 F10.7 168 168 154 158 137 129 132 èbcg ÷6.7 ó1.0 ÷7.6 ÷7.1 ÷5.2 ÷6.9 ÷5.6 GOES Sp 1380 1290 1090 1090 820 880 860 mvh N 1 1 1 2 IMF - - - - - - - áóå Å>2 4.1E+6 2.8å+6 6.3å+6 2.4å+6 5.6å+6 6.0E+6 3.6E+7 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 9 12 9 11 10 13 22 nT Dst -8 -28 nT KIOTO Amsc 13 14 8 11 13 12 27 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 7.11/0231 AND OBSERVED 7.11. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 8-9.11. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS LAST WEEK WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL DAYS EXCEPT 7.12 WHEN ON THE EARTH THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM WAS REGISTERED (G1, Ams = 33, dur.= 12 h.) According TO IZMIRAN, AND (G1 - still pro- ceeds) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDERE. SOURCE OF THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WAS A SERIES OF FLARES OCCURENCES ON DECEMBER 4. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru