Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 08 - 14.12.2014,
                 Forecast on 15 - 22.12.2014,
    Carrington Rotation 2157, 2158 (11.30.11; 8,61.12.2014)
 
 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN  WAS AT THE AVERAGE LE-
VEL, HOWEVER IN THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD GREW TO THE HIGH. 
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 068+37/-22. ON 
THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 4 - 9 SMALL
AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE HIGH AND AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT AC-
TIVITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE  VALUE OF RELA-
TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-20.

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT 13 AND 14.11, AND 
THE LOW -IN OTHER DAYS. THERE ARE 3 EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FI-
LAMENTS. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 
>37 CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "HALO" TYPE, ONE - "PARTIAL GALO 
III" TYPE AND 2 - THE "PARTIAL GALO II" TYPE. 

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FLARES   to   tm   te    c/p local.Class    E(1-8A)  AR RII/IV CME
                                   X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2
13.12 0513 0520  0525  S09E89L     M1.5/    6.4E-3  ????
14.12 1925 1933  2008  s19E44L238  M1.6/SF  7.8E-3  12242

DSF     to      te    c/p local.     l in deg.  Fl    AR     CME
09.12 >1349   <1433  N20E05L343        9
09.12 >2217   <1433  S18E12L335       10                     
10.12 >1030   <2210  S17E02L332        6  
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW LEVEL, BUT SEPARATE 
FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASSES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign  N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE   R  G   Observatories
óH   +  N45L302 N40L292 N15L327 N22L293 14.12 4(7) G0 SDO, SOHO...
óH   +  N05L329 N02L279 S08L290 S02L293 16.12  7   G0 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 11.12/22 UT  THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD.  THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH HAS TO 
PASS 25.12.

DECEMBER  08      09     10     11     12     13     14    DECEMBER 
Wus      077     080    097    115    132    121    175    
F10.7    133     140    150    148    154    160    166    
èbcg    ÷5.7    B8.3   ÷7.2   ÷7.2   ÷7.3     -    ÷8.3       GOES
Sp       860     510    670    780    850    890    860  mvh   
N                 1      2      1      2             4     
IMF       -       -      -     -/+     +      +      +        áóå   
Å>2   2.4E+8  1.2å+8 8.3å+7 1.5å+8 2.8å+7 1.3E+7 4.2E+7       GOES
Ie>2    9964    5719   2140   4943   2927     -     816  pfu  GOES  
Ap        17      17     10     8      8      30     11   nT   
Dst      -34     -39    -22    -17    -28    -44    -33   nT  KIOTO  
Amsc      19      9      9      8      7      27     13   nT IZMIRAN  
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE SMALL PROTON EVENT IS REGISTERED 13 - 15.12: 
max 2 pfu - 14/1020 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL BEGAN 7.11/0231 AND OBSERVED 8 - 13.12.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS LAST WEEK WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL DAYS
EXCEPT 12.12 WHEN ON THE EARTH THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM WAS REGISTERED 
(G1, Ams = 27, dur.= 15 h.) THE CENTER IN BOULDERE DATA AND (G0, Ams = 
28, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA.  SOURCE  OF THIS  GEOMAGNETIC 
DISTURBANCE WERE THE 2 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS 9.11.

 NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HOW-
EVER  STRENGTHENING GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS  IS POSSIBLE ON DECEMBER, 16
WHEN CROSSING BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR NEAR EQU-
ATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NO MORE THAN 10%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru