Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 15 - 21.12.2014 , Forecast on 22 - 29.12.2014, Carrington Rotation 2158 (8,61.12.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE HIGH LEVEL ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 20.12 WHEN THE AVERAGE LEVEL IS NO- TED. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 092+ 22/-20. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 10 - 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS TWO OF WHICH WERE BIG: AR12241 (S11L217, Sp max=720 mvh; M/3): - it was formed on the solar visible disk near of east limb on 13.12, fast de- velopment from 16.12 and large flares 17-18.12, further it remained big, but quiet. AR12242 (S20L240, Sp max=1080 mvh; X/1+M/3)-was formed too 13.12 it is a little to the west, rapid development by 16. 12, however the only large flare X1.8/3B occurenced only 20. 12. There is the biggest on today's date. NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE HIGH AND AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT AC- TIVITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELA- TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 060+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 17-18 AND 20.12, MID- DLE LEVEL AT 19 AND 21.12, AND THE LOW -IN OTHER DAYS. THERE ARE THREE EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENTS. BY DATA OF CORONO- GRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED >14 CME, TWO OF WHICH WAS THE "PARTIAL GALO II" TYPE. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 17.12 0055 0110 0213 S25E10L240 1N/M1.5 1.4E-02 12242 17.12 0130 0150 0255 S11E33L217 SN/M1.1 8.3E-03 12241 17.12 0423 0442 0638 S20E09L240 2B/M8.7 1.9E-01 12242 17.12 1854 1901 2003 S10E24L217 1N/M1.4 1.6E-02 12241 18.12 2141 2158 2345 S11E15L217 M6.9/2N 1.0E-01 12241 19.12 0931 0944 0954 S19W27L240 M1.3/1N 1.1E-02 12242 20.12 0011 0028 0241 S21W24L240 X1.8/3B 2.7E-01 12242 21.12 0718 0732 0751 S21W48L240 M1.2/1N 1.8E-02 12242 21.12 1124 1217 >1257 S13W25L217 M1.0/ 4.6E-02 12241 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 17.12 >2306 <1433 S44E04L237 8 19.12 0038 0242 S28W48L263 7 20.12 >2310 <1446 S38W33L235 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW LEVEL, BUT SEPARATE FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASSES ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óH + N05L329 N02L279 S08L290 S02L293 16.12 7 G0 SDO, SOHO... óH + N15L221 N02L218 N01L225 N05L227 21.12 1 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 11.12/22 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 25.12. DECEMBER 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 DECEMBER Wus 152 169 154 168 156 120 159 F10.7 169 185 192 213 216 203 206 èbcg ÷8.9 B9.2 C1.2 C1.4 C1.2 C1.3 C1.3 GOES Sp 1230 1530 1560 1870 2080 1750 1590 mvh N 1 1 2 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 2.6E+7 1.9å+7 2.4å+7 2.0å+7 1.8å+7 1.3E+7 9.2E+6 GOES Ie>2 1775 pfu GOES Ap 14 8 8 5 8 9 16 nT Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 14 11 8 8 11 10 13 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE SMALL PROTON EVENT IS REGISTERED 20 - 22.12: max 3 pfu - 21/2015 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 7.11/0231 AND OBSERVED 15.12. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS LAST WEEK WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL DAYS, HOWEVER BY THE LAST DAY OF PERIOD THE BEGINNING OF THE PLANETARY MINOR MAGNETIC STORM FROM REGISTRATION OF THE SUDDEN IMPULSE OF 21.12/1910 UT IS NOTED. NEXT WEEK IN THE FIRST DAYS THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS BECAUSE OF FLARE EVENTS IS EXPECTED ON DECEMBER 17 - 20. IN OTHER DAYS UNSET- TLED AND THE QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS MOST PROBABLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru