Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 15 - 21.12.2014 , Forecast on 22 - 29.12.2014, Carrington Rotation 2158, 2159 (08,61.12.2014; 4,94.01.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LE- VEL ALL DAYS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 063+14/ -11. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 8-6 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, TWO OF WHICH WERE AVERAGE SIZE: AR12241 (S11L217) AND AR12242 (S20L240). NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTIMA- TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040 +20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT 22 AND 26.12, AND THE LOW -IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 23 CME. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 22.12 0118 0149 0234 S19W54L240 M1.0/1F 1.1E-02 12242 26.12 0203 0216 0324 S11W48L164 M2.2/2B 1.4E-02 12249 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW LEVEL, BUT SEPARATE FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASSES ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óH + N60L144 N50L129 N25L159 N28L169 25-26.12 4 - SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 22.12/1730 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 06.01. DECEMBER 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 DECEMBER Wus 113 128 086 100 092 111 108 F10.7 179 166 151 145 137 134 133 èbcg C1.1 B9.7 C1.0 C1.1 B6.9 B5.2 B4.3 GOES Sp 1330 1030 480 460 280 580 520 mvh N 1 2 1 1 2 IMF +/- - - - - - - áóå Å>2 2.6E+7 1.9å+7 2.4å+7 2.0å+7 1.8å+7 1.3E+7 1.6E+7 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 20 11 16 14 16 7 10 nT Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 18 13 10 13 13 8 15 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=35, dlit.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOLDERE DATA IT IS NOTED ON DECEMBER 21-22. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DA- TA IT WAS A 9-hour SUBSTORM OF INTENSITY (G1). IT IS GEOMAGNETIC DISTUR- BANCE WAS A CONSEQUENCE OF LARGE FLARE EVENTS ON DECEMBER 17 - 18. LARGE X1.8/3B FLARE CAUSED ONLY 9-hours SUBSTORM (G0) 24.12. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IN OTHER DAYS WERE MAINLY TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE UNSETTLED AND THE QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS MOST PRO- BABLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru