Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05 - 11.01.2015, Forecast on 12 - 19.01.2015, Carrington Rotation 2159 (4,94.01.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LE- VEL ALL DAYS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W= 069+09/- 16. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 5-9 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE BIG SIZE WHICH DECREASED FROM 6.01 TO AVERAGE : AR122532 (S19L028, Sp=900 mvh, M/1) - was formed on December 30 on the eastern hemisphere (E67). After January 4 of significant flares wasn't. NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTIMA- TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040 +20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION WE- RE OCCURRENCE IN THIS PERIOD. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED > 18 CME. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 08.01 >0943 <2345 S26W11L318 5 09.01 0454 0507 S10W41L307 9 11.01 >0901 <2238 S16W31L318 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óH + N40L297 N38L295 N10L283 N15L279 09.01 5 G0 SDO, SOHO... óH + N08L292 N07L285 N00L299 N02L303 11.01 8 G0 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 07.01/09 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 18.01. JANUARY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 JANUARY Wus 089 102 106 101 125 146 133 F10.7 142 142 147 157 151 152 154 èbcg ÷7.2 B7.2 ÷7.0 ÷8.0 B7.7 B6.9 B8.2 GOES Sp 920 680 490 550 980 940 980 mvh N 2 1 2 1 IMF - - -/+ + + + + áóå Å>2 3.0E+6 2.1å+7 2.4å+6 1.5å+6 6.1å+6 2.7E+7 1.7E+7 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 16 14 39 18 9 9 9 nT Dst -67 -46 -105 -54 -41 -33 -34 nT KIOTO Amsc 16 7 16 16 8 13 10 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. VERY INTENSIVE 9-HOUR SUBSTORM (G3) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND 6-HOUR (G1) BY IZMIRAN DATA IS REGISTERED ON JANUARY 7. ITS SOURCE IS UNKNOWN. ON JANUARY 5 AND 8 THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION WAS ACTIVE, AND IN OTHER DAYS - UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK UNSETTLED AND QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru