Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 12 - 18.01.2015, Forecast on 19 - 26.01.2015, Carrington Rotation 2159 (4,94.01.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LE- VEL ALL DAYS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=048+19/-19 ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 6 - 3 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO OF WHICH WAS THE MIDDLE SIZE (Sp>300 mvh). NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTIMA- TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040 +20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL AT 13.01, THE MIDDLE -14.01 AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. 2 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION WERE OCCUR- RENCE IN THIS PERIOD. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WE- RE OBSERVED > 32 CME. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 13.01 *0413 0424 0604 N06W70L320 M5.6/2B 4.5E-02 12257 13.01 *0446 0458 >0510 N05W76L320 M4.9/2B 6.2E-02 12257 14.01 1230 1258 1308 N08W89L320 M2.2/ 2.0E-02 12257 * - two X-ray bursts in one solar flare event DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 14.10 >1445 <0714 N18E20L208 10 17.01 >1019 <2309 S32E37L151 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óH - N11L231 N00L226 S1L228 N08L235 18.01 2 G1 SDO, SOHO... óH - S18L220 S25L216 S26L222 S24L227 18-19.01 1 SDO, SOHO... óH + N60L122 N48L120 N30L144 N45L157 19.01 5 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 07.01/09 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 18.01. JANUARY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 JANUARY Wus 111 093 089 062 075 049 078 F10.7 159 145 142 131 125 122 126 èbcg Ó1.0 B7.5 ÷9.1 ÷6.5 B5.2 B4.6 B4.6 GOES Sp 950 840 570 270 220 120 150 mvh N 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 2.0E+7 6.7å+6 5.2å+6 5.6å+6 2.7å+6 3.9E+6 3.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 8 8 7 6 7 7 4 nT Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 10 11 9 6 9 7 9 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE. NEXT WEEK UNSETTLED AND QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru