-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2015 HAS MADE W feb.= 44.8, THAT GIVES FOR 67 MONTHS (2014, AUGUST) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC- LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*aug = 75.6 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014 THE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 81.9 THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015, FEBRUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 76 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 76 6.. 59 11.. 41 16.. 27 21.. 39 26.. 16 2.. 64 7.. 52 12.. 35 17.. 25 22.. 28 27.. 38 3.. 59 8.. 53 13.. 41 18.. 59 23.. 31 28.. 41 4.. 68 9.. 59 14.. 35 19.. 61 24.. 28 5.. 63 10.. 58 15.. 42 20.. 43 25.. 13 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2015, FEBRUARY F feb.= 129.1 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, FEBRUARY Ap feb.= 9.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 23.02 - 01.03.2015, Forecast on 02 - 09.03.2015, Carrington Rotation 2160,2161 (1,28.02; 27,93.03.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ALL PERIOD. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 035+7/-12. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 3-4 SMALL SUN- SPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT ACTI- VITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX- PECTED W = 030+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ON 23 - 24, 27 -28.02 AND 1.03, THE VERY LOW - ON OTHER DAYS. SIX SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION WERE OC- CURRENCE AT THE PERIOD. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WE- RE OBSERVED >40 CME AMONG WHICH ONE WAS "PARTIAL GALO III" TYPE AND SEVEN WERE "PARTIAL GALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 23.02 >0155 <0235 N18W71L127 18 12284 24.02 >0839 <2318 N10W41L084 14 12291 24.02 1938 2122 N16W40L083 13 12287 27.02 >1013 <2330 N24W54L064 20 12291 28.02 >0038 <1404 N13W09L009 11 28.02 >1018 <2333 S01W30L030 11 12292 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND THE VERY LOW LE- VEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óH + S05L078 S12L073 S15L083 S12L095 24.02 1 SDO, SOHO... óH + N27L010 N20L005 N15L010 N20L015 02.03 1 SDO, SOHO... óH - S28L000 S60L300 Ps S70L090 03.03 >7 G0 SDO, SOHO... óH + N08L299 N05L297 S08L315 S05L317 06.03 1 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 27.02/09 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 5.03. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 23 24 25 26 27 28 01 MARCH Wus 044 063 064 039 058 070 066 F10.7 117 114 111 111 118 123 128 èbcg B3.3 B2.8 B2.8 B2.5 ÷3.3 B4.4 B6.2 GOES Sp 080 120 100 070 200 220 210 mvh N 1 1 1 IMF -/+ + + + + +/- - áóå Å>2 2.9E+5 5.2å+5 3.8å+6 9.6å+6 1.3å+7 3.8E+6 1.4E+6 GOES Ie>2 191 366 238 pfu GOES Ap 18 29 7 4 3 13 23 nT Dst -30 -58 -33 -14 -57 nT KIOTO Amsc 19 21 14 5 6 14 23 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 37, dur.= 15 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1, Ams=33, dur.= 21 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER DATA WAS NOTED ON 23 - 24 FEBRUARY. THIS MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE - RESULT OF PASSING BY EARTH THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE SECOND GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS NOTED 28.02-01.03 AND REACHED THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM LEVEL (G1, Ams= 31, dur. = 18 h.) ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1, Ams = 43, dur. = 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER. DOUBLE SOLAR FILAMENTS EJECTA BECA- ME ON FEBRUARY 24 THE PROBABLE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru