Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 16 - 22.03.2015,
                 Forecast on 23 - 30.03.2015,
          Carrington Rotation 2161 (27,93.03.2015)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LE-
VEL ALL DAYS, GRADUALLY DECREASING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ES-
TIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W =062+14/-18. ON THE VISIBLE
DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 8 - 5 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF 
WHICH WAS AVERAGE SIZE. 

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT AC-
TIVITY. ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE 
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM  FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS 
EXPECTED W = 030+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS 
WERE OBSERVED 23 AND 27.03.  BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STE-
REO WERE OBSERVED > 38 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS "HALO" TYPE AND TWO
-"PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.
 
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FLARES   to   tm   te    c/p local.Class    E(1-8A)  AR RII/IV CME
                                   X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2

DSF     to      te    c/p local.     l in deg.  Fl    AR     CME
23.03  1330    2231  S24å42L014       12
27.03  ~13     ~15  ~N25E70L         >30 
http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=28&month=03&year=2015
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 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AT THE LOW AND THE 
AVERAGE (IMPROBABLE) LEVELS. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign  N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE   R  G   Observatories
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   ÚÎÁË N ËÏÎÅà å ËÏÎÅà S ËÏÎÅà W ËÏÎÅà   ïëð   R  G   ïâóåò÷áôïòéé
óH   +  S16L086 S25L074 S27L078 S10L088  23.03         SDO, SOHO...
óH   +  N03L067 S05L062 S12L069 S08L075  24.03         SDO, SOHO...
CH   -  S35L352 S70L277    Ps   S70L067  01.04     G1  SDO, SOHO...
óH   +  N49L270 N45L265 S15L315 S12L318  02.03  2  G1  SDO, SOHO...
Last CH is result of three CH evolution of last solar rotation.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 26.03/1430 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. FROM 23/00 UT TILL 26.03 THE EARTH PASSED "+" SECTOR. 
THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 31.03.

MARCH     23      24     25     26     27     28     29      MARCH  
Wus      119     127    115    103    109    082    073          
F10.7    126     133    138    136    138    146    145
èbcg    B4.7    B4.8   B5.4   B4.5   B5.0   B7.9   B9.1      GOES
Sp       540     580    650    590    600    580    450  msh   
N         3       1             1             1      1     
IMF     -/+       +      +     +/-     -      -      -       áóå   
Å>2   2.1å+8  3.0å+8 1.9å+8 1.3å+8 1.0E+8 2.2E+7 6.0å+6      GOES
Ie>2    7572   11608   4999   3959   4691   1221    467  pfu GOES  
Ap       21       11     13     7      9      9      13  nT   
Dst     -45      -38                         -40    -44  nT  KIOTO  
Amsc     25       12     12     10     10     13     11  nT  IZMIRAN   
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 18.03/1515 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON MARCH, 23 - 28.03.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX  AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA 23.03 ARE NOTED SUBSTORM G1-INTENSITY (dur.
=6 h.), AFTER WHICH IN 6 HOURS the MINOR MAGNETIC STORM WAS REGISTERED 
(G1, Ams = 26, dur.= 12 h.). ACCORDING TO CENTRE IN BOULDER THIS DAY 
TWO SUBSTORMS ARE REGISTERED by G1 AND G0-INTENSITY, DURATION 6 AND 3 
HOURS.  IN OTHER DAYS  THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS  WERE UNSETTLED AND 
QUIET: ON MARCH, 24-25 SEPARATE 3-HOUR SUBSTORMS (G0) WERE NOTED.

3-4 APRIL THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND 
FROM EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLES. THEREFORE THESE DAYS  GROWTH OF GEOMAG-
NETIC DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORMS ABOUT 40%. 
IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS UNSETTLED AND QUIET IS EXPECTED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM                   http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru