Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 06 - 12.04.2015, Forecast on 13 - 20.04.2015, Carrington Rotation 2162 (27,93.03.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ALL DAYS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=031+16/-11. ON THE VI- SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 2-5 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS LARGE SIZE. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED FROM 2 TO 5 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH AR12321 WAS THE BIG SIZE. IT APPEA- RED FROM EAST LIMB 9.04 QUIET SUNSPOT GROUP WITH THE COMPLEX MAG- NETIC CONFIGURATION. IT HAS EVERY CHANCE TO BECOME FLARE-ACTIVE AR. AS THE SUNSPOT GROUP IS NEAR EAST LIMB THE ANALYSIS ITS DEVE- LOPMENTS IT ISN'T POSSIBLE YET. SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT AVERAGE TO LOW LE- VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX- PECTED W = 030+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL 8 AND 12.04 AND AT LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED > 38 CME FROM WHICH FOUR WERE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 08.04 1437 1443 1447 S14W04L214 M1.4/1B 4.0E-03 12320 12.04 0851 0950 >1044 N11E18L094 M1.1/ 4.3E-02 12321 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 06.04 1829 1850 S15E15L213 9 C3.0 12320 CME 07.04 >0101 <1318 S48E01L214 14 07.04 >1627 <0535 N15E66L151 7 09.04 >0101 <1353 S06E21L167 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE (IM- PROBABLE) LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - S20L147 S60L089 Ps S32L169 14-15.04 >9 G1 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 12.03/08 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. ON APRIL 9 AND 10 THE SECTOR SIGN REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 27.04. APRIL 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 APRIL Wus 078 039 040 037 034 074 064 F10.7 126 111 106 113 115 123 134 èbcg B4.1 B3.3 B2.0 B2.5 B4.0 B6.3 B8.3 GOES Sp 220 280 170 150 140 330 720 msh N 3 IMF + + + +/- -/+ +/- - áóå Å>2 1.7å+7 2.7å+7 2.3å+7 6.4å+6 5.2E+5 1.3E+5 4.4å+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 7 5 3 12 35 20 7 nT Dst -3 -43 -73 -20 nT ëéïôï Amsc 5 7 8 15 25 17 5 nT éúíéòáî -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT MOSTLY QUITE AND UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=46, dur. = 15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER AND MINOR (G1, Ams=29, dur. =21 h.) ARE REGISTERED BY IZMIRAN DATA ON APRIL 9 - 10 AFTER ARRIVAL OF DISTURBANCE FROM SO- LAR FILAMENT EJECTION 4.04 (CME 2348 UT). SECOND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 27, dur. = 12 h.) It is NOTED ONLY ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA THIS DISTURBANCE - THE SUBSTORM (G0) LASTING 9 h. THE SOURCE OF THE LAST DISTURBANCE - THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE 14 - 15.04 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM POLAR CORONAL OF THE HOLE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru