-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON APRIL 2015 HAS MADE Wapr.= 54.4, THAT GIVES FOR 69 MONTHS (2014, OCTOBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*sep. = 67.3 THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82; THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015, APRIL ACCORDING DATA OF 77 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 32 6.. 39 11.. 42 16.. 69 21.. 93 26.. 47 2.. 25 7.. 37 12.. 62 17.. 85 22..104M 27.. 34 3.. 23 8.. 31 13.. 75 18..100 23.. 84 28.. 31 4.. 40 9.. 34 14.. 75 19..100 24.. 61 29.. 19 5.. 40 10.. 29 15.. 70 20.. 93 25.. 48 30.. 11m THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2015, APRIL Fapr.= 128.8 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, APRIL Ap apr.= 10.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.04 - 03.05.2015, Forecast on 04 - 11.05.2015, Carrington Rotation 2163 (24,21.04.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS THE FIRST 2 DAYS AND 3.05 AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, AND ON LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 019+21/-11. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 1 - 4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT AVERAGE TO LOW LE- VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX- PECTED W = 020+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ON APRIL 28 - 30, AND 1, 3 MAY AND AT VERY LOW-IN OTHER DAYS. 7 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURREN- CE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WE- RE OBSERVED >37 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE "HALO"TYPE, ONE-"PARTIAL HALO III" TYPE AND FOUR - "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 27.04 A0907 //// A0502 SVI 2 DSF N04E58 15 28.04 0250 0330 N06e47L244 17 28.04 0616 0908 N10E20L274 15 28.04 >0907 <2316 N29E37L257 38 28.04 >0907 <2316 N09E52L2244 9 28.04 2113 2316 N27E52L242 14 02.05 1501 1809 S42E02l239 18 óíå -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óî + S01L310 S22L295 S25L297 S18L315 30.04 3 G0 SDO, SOHO... óî + N60L277 N50L247 N28L279 N35L287 1-2.05 1 SDO, SOHO... CH - N07L234 N05L232 S05L236 S03L239 05.04 2 G1 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 20.04/14 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. HOWEVER ON APRIL 27-30 THE SECTOR SIGN REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 7.05. áðòåìø 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 íáê Wus 042 036 026 027 013 025 067 F10.7 108 108 150 104 102 106 111 èbcg B2.7 B2.7 B2.8 B2.8 B2.2 B2.7 B4.5 GOES Sp 240 240 030 050 070 220 200 msh N 2 3 IMF +/- - -/+/- -/ + + + + áóå Å>2 3.3å+7 3.1å+6 2.9å+6 1.3å+6 9.7E+5 2.6E+6 6.9å+7 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 5 5 3 4 6 9 7 nT Dst nT ëIïôï Amsc 9 8 10 7 9 11 8 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT WAS NOT OB- SERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUITE AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE 05.05 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM NEAR EQU- ATORIAL CORONAL HOLE AND DISTURBANCE HAS TO COME FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJ- ECTION 2.05 WHICH "HALO" CME WAS FOLLOWED. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 30%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UN- SETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE - SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru