Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 11 - 17.05.2015, Forecast on 18 - 25.05.2015, Carrington Rotation 2163, 2164 (24,21.04; 21,44.05.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN THE FIRST TWO DAYS WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL, THEN ON THE AVERAGE, GRADUALLY GOING DOWN. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W =078+35/-33. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 10 - 6 SUNSPOT GROUPS FROM WICH ONE WAS A BIG SIZE: AR12339 (N12L139, Sp=900 ÍÐÄ, X/1+M/3 5-6.05 - 26 h.) after 6 May quiet, gradually decreasing on the area. NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING OF ACTIVITY, AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED, IT IS POSSIBLE ON LOW. ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC- TED W = 030+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL AND AFTER 15 MAY-AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 6 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCE THROUGH THE PE- RIOD. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED >35 CME FROM WHICH 5 WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90-180 deg.). ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 11.05 >0107 >1233 N12E38L071 14 12343 11.05 0341 0558 N43E12L098 11 13.05 >0855 >2330 S25E04l079 8 13.05 1758 1819 N11W16L099 8 12345 óíå 15.05 >2309 <1407 N41E31L039 11 óíå 16.05 ~1030 ~1240 N30E15L050 8 CME -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON VERY LOW AND THE LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óî - S18L146 S40L121 S43L126 S25L151 12.05 3(>10) G0 SDO, SOHO... óî - S23L111 S20L069 S42L079 S21L113 14.05 3 G0 SDO, SOHO... CH + N01L065 S05L058 S20L065 S10L082 17.05 5 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N60L020 N58L355 N35L018 N55L030 20.05 2 G1 SDO, SOHO... The second CH separated from the southern polar CH. R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 17.05/04 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. AFTER 11.05/0730 UT THE SIGN OF SECTOR WAS "+". THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS 24.05. MAY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 MAY Wus 188 170 135 126 113 103 075 F10.7 163 163 157 145 137 131 120 èbcg B7.4 B7.0 B7.0 B6.5 B5.1 B5.0 B4.0 GOES Sp 1130 910 590 750 640 590 510 msh N 3 1 IMF +/- - - - - - -/+ áóå Å>2 8.6å+5 4.2å+5 4.2å+6 1.6å+8 2.9E+8 4.0E+8 3.3å+8 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 16 15 43 7 7 67 5 nT Dst nT ëIïôï Amsc 15 20 32 11 13 9 10 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT BEGAN 14. 05/0925 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON MAY 14-17. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT 18 - 24 MAY. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS EXCEPT MAY 13 WHEN ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDERE DATA WAS REGISTERED THE MO- DERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 44, dur.=24 h.). BY DATA IZMIRAN IT WAS THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=28, dur.=39 h.) 12-13.05. SOURCE WAS THE ARRIVAL TO THE EARTH OF DISTURBANCE FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC- TION 9.05. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE - SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru