Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 08 - 14.06.2015, Forecast on 15 - 22.06.2015, Carrington Rotations 2164, 2165 (21,44.05; 17,64.06.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMA- TED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 064+9/-6. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONS- TANTLY OBSERVED 7-5 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH WAS MIDDLE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING OF ACTIVITY, IS EX- PECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL JUNE, 11, 13 AND 14, THE LOW LE- VEL - 9, 10 AND 11.07 AND 8.06 - THE VERY LOW. SIX SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC- TIONS OCCURRENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ONE WAS VERY LONG BUT IT LOCALI- ZATION WAS E-LIMB. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED > 16 CME. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 11.06 0849 0855 >0859 S19E83L005 M1.0/ 3.4E-03 12367 13.06 0711 0729 0755 N14W78L127 SF/M1.3 1.7E-02 12360 14.06 0052 0059 0109 N14W81L127 M2.0/ 1.4E-02 12360 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 08.06 <2142 >1854 N54W00L109 13 09.06 >0911 <1403 N21E46L050 13 09.06 <1709 <0426 N47W12L108 7 10.06 0941 1049 S29E56L025 15 12.06 >0144 <1227 N19E06l050 9 14.06 0707 0827 N43E90L300 62 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, A SMALL PROBABILI- TY, THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + S06L155 S35L144 S37L147 S20L177 08.06 >9 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N10L087 N02L079 S21L074 S17L096 14.06 6 G0 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 12.06/16 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS 20.06. JUNE 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 JUNE Wus 122 110 105 101 096 097 117 F10.7 134 137 135 140 137 136 132 èbcg B4.3 B5.3 B6.0 B7.1 B8.1 B8.9 B7.5 GOES Sp 120 350 250 320 630 610 550 msh N 1 2 1 IMF - - - - -/+ + + áóå Å>2 3.0å+5 3.7å+7 1.3å+8 2.1å+8 2.5E+8 1.4E+8 3.1å+7 GOES Ie>2 1380 4602 6029 8585 3601 1270 pfu GOES Ap 36 15 12 9 6 10 20 nT Dst -63 -34 -21 -22 -15 nT ëIïôï Amsc 30 17 14 12 13 15 12 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT BEGINNING AT 9.07/1210 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 9 - 14.07. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 15 - 18.06. THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ACCORDING OF IZMIRAN DATA 8.06 (G1, Ams = 31, dur. = 21 h.) AND ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOUL- DER DATA (G2, Ams = 34, dur. = 27 h.), AS A RESULT OF PASSING BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE RECURRENT LARGE CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. The SECOND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS REGISTERED ACCORDING OF THE CENTRE IN BOULDER 14.06 (G1, Ams=25, dur. = 12 h.), WHICH WAS ALSO A CONSEQUENCE OF PASSING BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM RECURRENT TRANSEQUATORIAL CORONAL. IN IZMIRAN'S DATA THIS MAGNETIC STORM WASN'T SHOWN. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE - SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru