Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.07.2015, Forecast on 20 - 27.07.2015, Carrington Rotations 2165, 2166 (17,64.06; 14,84.07.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL WAS CLOSER TO THE LOW. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (NEW) WAS W = 32+6/-5. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 3-4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. AVERAGE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ON JULY, 14, 18, 19.07 AND AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE SEVEN SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD, ONE HUGE (55 deg.). ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS, >34 CMEs, TWO WERE "PARTIAL HA- LO II" TYPE (angular width 90 - 180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 16.07 1453 1643 N32E27L307 22 16.07 >1729 <0454 N45E29L305 6 18.07 >1654 <0509 N24W42L349 11 19.07 0036 0247 N15W60L354 12 19.07 0109 0207 N29W27L321 55 19.07 0650 0922 S31W75L009 23 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N22L038 N20L037 N05L052 N05L052 12-13.07 2 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N15L329 N13L327 N02L329 N10L339 19.07 6 G2 SDO, SOHO... CH + N80L284 N60L254 N45L284 N50L309 21.07 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N42L269 N38L254 N28L274 N18L284 23.07 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... The last two CH on last turn were one. R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 10.07/22 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS 30.07. JULY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 JULY Wus 044 039 039 055 040 052 046 F10.7 110 105 101 100 097 096 099 èbcg B3.5 B3.1 B2.5 B2.1 B2.2 B2.0 B3.0 GOES Sp 590 530 280 210 190 310 220 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 8.6å+6 5.5å+7 1.5å+8 1.6å+8 2.8E+8 3.1E+8 4.0E+8 GOES Ie>2 593 1425 3157 4277 7462 5016 7861 pfu GOES Ap 31 6 10 5 5 6 3 nT BOULDER Dst -62 -39 -19 -21 -12 -10 -7 nT KIOTO Amsc 24 10 7 8 4 3 7 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT BEGINNING AT 9.07/1355 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 13 - 19.07. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 20 - 24.07. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=41, dur.=18 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER, AND (G1, Ams= 30, dur.= 18 h.) BY DATA TO IZMIRAN IS REGISTERED 13.07 AS A RESULT OF PASSING BY THE EARTH OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE POSITIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR NORTHERN HE- MISPHERE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUIET AND UNSET- TLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ARE EXPECTED UN- SETTLED AND QUITE. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF GROWTH OF GEO- MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE 23.07 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM POSITIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. IN THE SAME TIME THE NEAR-EARTH SPACE WILL SLIDING SHOCK FROM FILAMENT EJECTION (23 deg.) CME AT 19.07. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ABOUT 10%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE - SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru