Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 20 - 26.07.2015, Forecast on 27.07 - 03.08.2015, Carrington Rotation 2166 (14,84.07.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL CLOSER TO THE LOW AND 23.07 WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (new) WAS W= 25+13/-6. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 2-4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY ARE EX- PECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ON 24 AND 26.07 AND AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE ELEVEN SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OC- CURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STE- REO CORONOGRAPHS, >16 CMEs, ONE WAS "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90 - 180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 22.07 >0014 >1523 S39E60L194 6 22.07 >1624 <0615 N07E49L205 12 22.07 1836 1924 N10W08L262 9 12387 23.07 0943 1158 N06W47L288 5 23.07 >1603 <0600 S44E37L204 12 24.07 >0136 <1244 S44W06L234 10 24.07 1452 1535 S41E47L181 18 24.07 >1642 <0523 S38E32L196 7 24.07 1753 2246 S36E43L185 12 25.07 >0136 <1254 N28E31L186 6 25.07 >0136 <1254 S41E41L174 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N80L284 N60L254 N45L284 N50L309 21.07 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N42L269 N38L254 N28L274 N18L284 23.07 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + S00L234 S12L226 S15L229 S02L309 25.07 1 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 10.07/22 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS 30.07. JULY 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 JULY Wus 039 037 035 027 054 041 038 F10.7 093 091 089 089 092 094 097 èbcg B2.2 B1.7 B1.5 B1.7 B2.2 B2.2 B2.3 GOES Sp 160 150 090 040 070 130 190 msh N 2 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 8.2å+7 3.3å+6 2.9å+6 1.5å+6 6.2E+6 3.1E+7 3.5E+7 GOES Ie>2 6019 249 176 993 1109 pfu GOES Ap 5 12 7 22 7 11 7 nT BOULDER Dst ÎT KIOTO Amsc 7 10 13 21 11 12 10 ÎT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT BEGINNING AT 14.07/1315 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 14 - 20.07. NEXT ELECTRON FLUX BEGIN- NING AT 26.07/1835 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 27 - 31.07. 6 HOUR MAGNETIC SUBSTORM (G1) ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN AND CENTER IN BOL- DERE IS REGISTERED 23.07 AS A RESULT OF PASSING BY THE EARTH OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE SOLAR CORONAL HOLE OF POSITIVE POLARITY ON NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND DISTURBANCE FROM EJECTION BIG (23rd deg.) FILA- MTNT 19.07. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUIET AND UNSET- TLED.. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ARE EXPECTED UN- SETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE - SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru