Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 10 - 16.08.2015, Forecast on 17 - 24.08.2015, Carrington Rotation 2166, 2167 (14,84.07; 07,30.09.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (new) WAS W = 61+23/-30 (Wold = 41+11/-22). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 5 - 2 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE BIG SIZE, QUITE (AR12396 (S16L037, Sp max= 800 msh) WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL AT 11, 14, 15.08 AND THE VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE SEVEN SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS, >35 CMEs TWO THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90 - 180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 12.08 1332 1430 S29W29L002 19 CME 12.08 2314 0017 N05W28L002 6 13.08 0035 0111 S10W30L350 8 13.08 1801 1910 N43E29L291 7 14.08 0707 0906 S12W41L348 16 14.08 1700 1754 S39W30L337 17 0003? 14.08 <2241 >1337 S05E59L248 11 15.08 <0801 >2331 N62E11L283 16 15.08 <0801 >2331 N41W12L305 6 15.08 0846 1523 N14E69L225 21 15.08 <1627 >0637 N12W43L331 6 12398 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N10L342 S10L335 S11L337 N01L349 16.08 7 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N80L268 N65L193 N22L260 N25L276 20.08 5 SDO, SOHO... CH + N30L296 N28L282 N18L296 N29L301 18.08 1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N01L223 S13L217 S15L220 S05L233 23.08 2 SDO, SOHO... Third CH perhaps simply expansion of the second. R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 06.08/0630 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS 26.08. AUGUST 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 AUGUST Wus 067 087 068 051 046 033 032 F10.7 106 103 099 095 093 089 086 èbcg B2.4 B2.2 B2.3 B2.1 B2.4 B1.7 B1.3 GOES Sp 790 770 590 290 160 060 080 msh N 2 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 4.1å+7 1.1å+8 7.0å+7 7.9å+6 1.0E+7 1.5E+6 2.8E+7 GOES Ie>2 1559 4102 2834 749 192 1325 pfu GOES Ap 10 7 12 10 3 46 36 nT BOULDER Dst -27 -35 -13 -69 -89 nT KIOTO Amsc 12 9 11 12 6 30 24 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 9. 08/1340 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON AUGUST 9 - 12. THE SECOND INCREASE BE- GAN 16.08/1800 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 16 - 20.08. GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY REACHED OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS (G1, Ams= 48, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING OF CENTRE IN BOULDER DATA AND (G1, Ams = 29, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING OF IZMIRAN DATA ON 07.08 WITH ACTIVE LEVELS OBSERVED ON 6 AND 7.08 IN RESPONSE TO THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED STREAMS (CH HSSs). GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUITE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE SUMMARY PERIOD. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HOW- EVER THE GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE ON ARRIVAL IN THE ENVIRONMENT SPACE OF CME FROM 2 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS IS POSSIBLE ON AUGUST 18-19 AND 22 - 23.08 - AT PASS BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM (CH HSS) OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF POSITIVE POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORMS NO MORE 20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE - SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru