------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2015 HAS MADE Waug. = 64.6, THAT GIVES FOR 73 MONTHS (2015, FEBRUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*feb. = 86.6 - new system; 51.96 - old system; W*jan. = 89.8 - new system; 53.9 - old system; - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system, if it remains. Preliminary table of reliable solar cycles in new system look down. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015, AUGUST ACCORDING DATA OF 79 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 64 6..111 11.. 78 16.. 38 21.. 74 26.. 47 31.. 35 2.. 52 7..112M 12.. 67 17.. 33m 22.. 72 27.. 58 3.. 61 8.. 92 13.. 55 18.. 39 23.. 80 28.. 45 4.. 91 9.. 76 14.. 45 19.. 51 24.. 82 29.. 56 5.. 93 10.. 68 15.. 39 20.. 64 25.. 69 30.. 55 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2015, AUGUST Faug. = 105.4 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, AUGUST Ap aug. = 13.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 31.08 - 06.09.2015, Forecast on 07 - 14.09.2015, Carrington Rotation 2167, 2168 (07,30.09; 04,57.10.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE- VELS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (new) WAS W=37+11/-14 (W old = 23+6/-9) ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4-2 SMALL, QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS. THE LOW LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE W-NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 31.08 AND THE VERY LOW-IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE 6 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AC- CORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >33 CMEs, ONE WAS "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90-180 degrees) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/оp J/m-2 DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME 01.09 >0024 >1317 S05W74L157 11 12408 01.09 0605 0752 S21W80L163 16 02.09 >0049 >1318 N17W24L094 4 04.09 1709 1854 S20E13L020 24 05.09 0542 0637 S14E17L000 18 05.09 <0727 <0840 S20E90L287 0.15R 06.09 0410 0832 N24E73L291 20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N10L099 N02L089 S05L090 N02L104 02.09 9 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N75L050 N65L105 N28L080 N28L233 04.09 1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N15L333 S01L332 S08L334 N01L348 10.09 8 G1 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 02.09/1522 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS 23.09. --------------------------------------------------------------------- АВГУСТ 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 СЕНТЯБРЬ Wus 050 049 041 027 036 024 038 F10.7 091 089 088 087 090 085 086 Хbcg B2.8 B2.1 B1.8 B1.7 B1.2 B1.0 B1.0 GOES Sp 040 090 070 040 060 050 070 msh N 1 1 1 1 1 IMF - - -/+ + + + + АСЕ е>2 1.5Е+8 1.5Е+8 7.9Е+7 1.2Е+7 8.2E+6 7.7E+7 5.2E+7 GOES Ie>2 2912 3144 2791 578 371 3188 1973 pfu GOES Ap 5 6 7 9 15 3 15 nT BOULDER Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 6 8 12 8 19 14 18 nT IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 30. 08 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON AUGUST 31.08-2.09 SECOND INCREACE BEGAN 05. 09/1315 UT AND OBSERVED ON 31.08 - 2.09. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 7 - 8 AND 12 - 14.09. MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 33, dur.= 12 h.) REGISTERING THE CENTRE IN BOULDER IN THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 4.09. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA IT WAS 3 -hour SUBSTORM. SEPARATE SUBSTORMS ALSO NOTED IN THE LATER PART OF DAY 4, 5 AND 6.09. IN THE REMAINING DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION 10.9 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF POSITIVE POLARITY IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ABOUT 30%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE - SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru Preliminary table of reliable and convention reliable (8, 9) solar cycles Предваритульная таблица достоверных и условно-достоверных (8, 9,) циклов СА № То cycle W*min Тmax. Тmin. W*max. Durat. Incr. Decr. Y, M Y, M Y, M Y Y Y 8 1833 XI(IX) 12.2 1837 III 1843 VI 244.9 9.67 3.33 6.33 9 1843 VII 17.6 1848 II 1855 XI 219.9 12.42 4.58 7.83 10 1855 XII 6.0 1860 II 1867 II 186.2 11.42 4.17 7.25 11 1867 III 9.9 1870VIII 1878 XI 234.0 11.92 3.42 8.50 12 1878 XII 3.7 1883 XII 1890 II 124.4 11.33 5.0 6.33 13 1890 III 8.3 1894 1901 XII 146.5 12.08 3.83 8.25 14 1902 I 4.5 1906 II 1913 VII 107.1 11.67 4.08 7.59 15 1913 VIII 2.5 1917VIII 1923 VII 175.7 10.08 4.0 6.08 16 1923 VIII 9.4 1928 IV 1933 VIII 130.2 10.25 4.67 5.58 17 1933 IX 5.8 1937 IV 1944 I 198.6 10.5 3.58 6.92 18 1944 II 12.9 1947 V 1954 III 218.7 10.25 3.25 7.00 19 1954 IV 5.1 1958 III 1964 IX 285.0 10.42 3.92 6.50 20 1964 X 14.3 1968 XI 1976 VI 156.6 11.83 4.08 7.75 21 1976 III(VI) 17.8 1979 XII 1986 VIII 232.9 10.41 3.25 7.16 22 1986 IX 13.5 1989 IX(VII)1996 IV 212.5 9.58 3.09 6.49 23 1996 V 11.2 2000 IV 2008 XI 175.2 12.7 3.83 8.87 24 2008 XII 2.2 2014 IV 2021 IV-IX 116.4 12 5.5 7 In bracketed - old system; solar cycle 24th in new system began on December 2008. В скобках - в старой системе; 24 солнечный цикл в новой системе начался в декабре 2008