Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 07 - 13.09.2015, Forecast on 14 - 21.09.2015, Carrington Rotation 2168 (04,57.10.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ESTI- MATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (new) WAS W=58+27/-19 (W old =36+16/-13) ON THE VI- SIBLE SOLAR DISK 3-6 SMALL, QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS. THE LOW LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE W-NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 11.08 AND THE VERY LOW-IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE 7 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AC- CORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >17 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 08.09 0032 0137 N21E47L287 8 09.09 0504 0719 S20W05L325 11 10.09 <0429 <0614 N03W14L321 13 10.09 >2012 <1341 N26W01L308 12 11.09 >1144 >1309 N23W20L314 12 13.09 <0517 <0633 S23W17L285 7 13.09 0932 1532 N03W12L280 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N15L333 S01L332 S08L334 N01L348 10.09 8 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N90L327 N75L267 N20L317 N50L337 11.09 6 G0 SDO, SOHO... CH + N85L268 N35L233 N28L238 N28L278 15.09 6 SDO, SOHO... CH + N27L235 S05L214 S09L219 N15L235 18-19.09 6 G1 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 02.09/1522 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. HOWEVER, DUE TO EXTENDED TIME INTERPLANETARY DISTURBAN- CES,šTHE SECTOR SIGN REPEATEDLY CYANGED 7 - 9 AND 13.09. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS 23.09. SEPTEMBER 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 SEPTEMBER Wus 047 040 049 042 079 087 075 F10.7 084 084 082 084 093 099 099 èbcg á6.3 á5.3 á5.9 á7.9 B1.6 B2.7 B2.1 GOES Sp 080 060 070 060 230 250 500 msh N 1 1 2 1 1 IMF -/+ +/- -/+ + + + +/-/+ áóå Å>2 4.4å+7 7.9å+6 8.2å+6 7.2å+7 2.3E+7 3.2E+8 3.4E+8 GOES Ie>2 2559 800 1006 3173 1274 10410 11913 pfu GOES Ap 46 28 63 13 62 16 11 nT BOULDER Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 32 25 40 12 55 15 13 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 05. 09/1315 UT AND OBSERVED ON 7.09. SECOND INCREASE BEGAN 10/1020 UT AND OBSERVED ON 10 - 13.09. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 13 - 15 AND 19 - 21.09. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ENTIRE PERIOD WAS ACTIVE EXCEPT 10 AND 13.09. THE FIRST MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams =61, dur.=24 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER DATA AND (G2, Ams=52, dur.=18 h.), ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA OCCURRENCE 7-8.09. AND AT THE END OF DAYS 8.09 start the next MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 58, dur.= 27 h.) ACCORDING TO THE IN BOULDER DATA AND MODERATE (G2, Ams=44, long.= 27 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA, THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE EXTREMITY OF DAY 9.09. ALREADY BEGUN 11.09 NEXT MA- JOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams=53, dur.=30 h.) IN BOULDER AND (G2, Ams=56, dur. = 12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA. ALL THESE DISTURBANCES CAUSED PASSA- GE OF EARTH THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM CORONAL HOLE OF POSITIVE POLARITY. AS THE EARTH APPROACHES THE CELESTIAL EQUATOR, GEOEFFE- CTIVENESS CORONAL HOLES INCREASES, AND, APPARENTLY, START TO WORK THE CO- RONAL HOLES OF HIGH LATITUDES. NEXT WEEK ARE POSSIBLE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS 15 AND 18.09, WHEN EARTH BE HELD HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS FROM CORONAL HOLES OF POSITIVE POLARITY NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUN. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM 15% TO 15. 09 and 40% for 18.09. 09. IN THE REMAINING DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EX- PECTED UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE - SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru