Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 14 - 20.09.2015, Forecast on 21 - 28.09.2015, Carrington Rotation 2168 (04,57.10.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ESTI- MATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (new) WAS W=64+8/-14 (W old =40+4/-9) ON THE VISIB- LE SOLAR DISK 3-6 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL 17 AND 20.09, THE VERY LOW - 14, AND THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE 5 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OC- CURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STE- REO CORONOGRAPHS >27 CMEs, ONE HALO TYPE AND ONE "PARTIAL HALO II" TY- PE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 17.09 <0928 0934 >0935 S21W04L230 SF/M1.1 4.6E-03 12415 20.09 0455 0503 0517 NO9E83L108 M1.5/ 1.3E-02 12420 20.09 1730 1803 1959 S20W24L230 2N/M2.1 4.5E-02 12415 II/1 CME/360 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 14.09 1425 1631 N01W03L257 6 14.09 >1601 >0629 S23E10L244 13 15.09 >0038 >1319 S26E16L225 8 17.09 0642 0904 S27W61L276 11 20.09 0633 - SE-quadrant (193 A) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N85L268 N35L233 N28L238 N28L278 15.09 6 SDO, SOHO... CH + N27L235 S05L214 S09L219 N15L235 18-19.09 6 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH - N22L142 N22L142 N00L160 N08L170 24.09 6 G2 SDO, SOHO... CH - S20L155 S55L125 S60L130 S25L160 26.09 >13 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 02.09/1522 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE SECTOR SIGN REPEATEDLY CHANGED 19.09. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS 23.09. SEPTEMBER 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 SEPTEMBER Wus 052 066 067 072 062 061 074 F10.7 097 101 109 107 103 106 110 èbcg B2.0 B2.7 B3.4 B2.9 B3.4 B3.0 B3.4 GOES Sp 520 530 680 500 490 520 750 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + + + +/-/+ + áóå Å>2 1.6å+8 1.6å+8 2.3å+8 2.4å+8 5.9E+7 1.6E+7 8.1E+6 GOES Ie>2 7601 6437 8045 6939 3602 425 383 pfu GOES Ap 17 18 13 13 12 17 57 nT BOULDER Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 20 20 15 10 13 13 30 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT WAS REGISTERED 20.09 AFTER M2.1/SF FLARE: Pr (<10 MeV): to-~19 UT, max-2045 UT, 3 pfu, continued. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 10/ 1020 UT AND OBSERVED ON 10 - 18.09. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 24 - 27.09. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION THE ENTIRE PERIOD CHANGED FROM THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM TO UNSETTLED. The FIRST MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams =24, dur. = 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER DATA AND TWO SUBSTORMS (G1- 6 h.; G0 - 3 h.) ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA 14 -15.09. ONE MORE ALREADY MA- JOR MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams= 65, dur. = 15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER DATA BEGAN AFTER ARRIVAL OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE (SI-20/ 0645UT) FROM CME C2.6/SF FLARE 18.09. ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA THIS DISTURBATION IS MINOR MAGNETIC STORM - (G1, Ams = 30, dur.= 24 h.) BEGAN AT THE END OF DAY 19.09 THAT IS CONNECTED WITH PASSING OF THE EARTH OF THE NTAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE HIGH-SPEED STREAM, AND THEN, WITH ARRI- VAL OF THE GEOMAGNETIC IMPULSE AFTER WHICH THE SECOND STAGE OF THE GEO- MAGNETIC STORM DEVELOPED. NEXT WEEK ARE POSSIBLE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS 24.09, WHEN EARTH BE HELD HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS FROM CORONAL HOLES OF NEGATIVE PO- LARITY NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUN. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM 40%. IN THE REMAINING DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE - SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru