Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 21 - 27.09.2015, Forecast on 28.09 - 05.10.2015, Carrington Rotation 2168, 2169 (07,30.09; 04,57.10.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, AMPLIFYING IN THE LAST THREE DAYS OF THE PERIOD, AND 27.09 REACHED THE HIGH. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS Wn= 105+34/-40 (Wo= 66+26/ -25). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4 - 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE BIG SIZE (AR12422, S20L103) AFTER 27.09, WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WE- EK IS W = 050+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT 27.09, VERY LOW- 22.09, AND THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE 5 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCUR- RENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >26 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 27.09 1020 1040 1046 S22W08L106 M1.9/1F 9.8E-03 12422 27.09 2054 2100 2115 S21W16L106 M1.0/1N 8.1E-03 12422 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 23.09 1825 1929 S08E54L082 19 24.09 >2300 >0943 N17W06L128 7 27.09 1326 1508 N47E22L061 15 27.09 1326 1508 N21E47L036 23 27.09 1353 1505 N27E64L019 16 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - N22L142 N22L142 N00L160 N08L170 24.09 6 G2 SDO, SOHO... CH - S20L155 S55L125 S60L130 S25L160 26.09 >13 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 22.09/0030 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH HAS TO PASS 29.09. óåîôñâòø 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 óåîôñâòø Wus 068 079 095 086 145 138 154 F10.7 103 107 111 107 120 120 128 èbcg B2.9 B2.6 B3.1 B2.8 B3.6 B4.0 B6.5 GOES Sp 650 630 500 550 640 720 1010 msh N 2 1 3 1 IMF + +/- - - - - - áóå Å>2 1.3å+7 3.2å+7 1.6å+7 2.0å+7 2.7E+7 3.1E+7 2.2E+7 GOES Ie>2 374 782 531 615 636 976 476 pfu GOES Ap 9 11 14 8 6 4 4 nT BOULDER Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 9 8 12 8 10 9 3 nT IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NO OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAIND ON UNSETTLED DURING PERIOD. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru