Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 16 - 22.11.2015, Forecast on 23 - 30.11.2015, Carrington Rotation 2170, 2171 (31,87.10; 28,17.11.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W =30+16/-10 (WÎ=48+25/-16). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4-2 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EX- PECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVE- RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+15/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW - 17-18 AND 21-22.11 AND AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 10 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 16.11 0100 0410 S28W30L173 19 18.11 >1302 >0715 S38E03L119 14 18.11 1755 1853 N04W57L179 8 2453 22.11 0633 0753 S19E17L053 27 CME/0836 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - N35L043 N33L141 N08L152 N12L167 18.11 2 SDO, SOHO... CH + S01L142 S12L031 S15L033 S05L054 26.11 1 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 17.11/1930 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 16.11. NOVEMBER 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 NOVEMBER Wus 044 033 036 051 052 059 076 F10.7 106 107 108 108 111 122 123 èbcg ÷2.3 ÷2.5 B3.5 B3.5 ÷3.2 B4.0 B4.5 GOES Sp 040 040 060 080 150 250 330 msh N 1 1 1 IMF + +/- - - - - - áóå Å>2 5.6å+7 1.2å+7 2.0å+7 1.2å+7 8.2E+7 9.6E+6 9.5å+6 GOES Ie>2 3129 467 989 298 230 200 195 pfu GOES Ap 17 8 16 9 7 9 2 nT BOULDER Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 16 13 17 7 6 10 5 nT IZMIRAN NOVEMBER 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 NOVEMBER Wus 067 065 064 029 050 048 063 F10.7 108 105 105 104 103 106 106 èbcg ÷3.1 ÷3.1 B3.2 B2.6 ÷2.4 B2.2 B2.3 GOES Sp 360 250 110 040 050 060 080 msh N 1 2 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 2.8å+8 6.0å+8 2.0å+9 1.8å+9 1.6E+9 7.4E+7 1.3å+8 GOES Ie>2 17885 19551 59508 33937 88813 2734 2086 pfu GOES Ap 27 39 24 5 14 9 8 nT BOULDER Dst -46 -44 -29 -23 -23 -23 -11 nT KIOTO Amsc - - 23 9 23 10 9 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINNING AT 04.11/1405 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 16.11. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE AT 16, 18.11 AND UNCETTLED IN OTHER DAYS. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED IN THE MAIN UNSET- TLED AND QUIET. HOWEVER 26.11 EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM THE SMALL, FORMED 21-22.11, TRANS-EQUATORIALS CORONAL HOLE OF POSITIVE POLARITY AND THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CAN BE ACTIVE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru