Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 23 - 30.11.2015, Forecast on 30.11 - 7.12.2015, Carrington Rotation 2170, 2171 (31,87.10; 28,17.11.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W =33+13/-11 (Wn=53+21/-18). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4-3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EX- PECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVE- RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+15/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 23, 25.11 AND AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL - IN OTHER DAYS. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 10 CMEs, ONE - A TYPE III (angular width 180 - 270 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VARY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + S01L142 S12L031 S15L033 S05L054 26.11 1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N80L310 N55L290 N33L358 N45L010 29.11 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + S00L001 S11L342 S20L324 S03L003 30.11 1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N50L275 N35L245 N18L280 N36L298 4.12 6 G1 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 17.11/1930 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. 26 AND 27.11 SIGN OF SECTOR CHANGED. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 3.12. NOVEMBER 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 NOVEMBER Wus 077 066 058 056 048 036 047 F10.7 120 113 109 104 099 097 097 èbcg ÷4.2 ÷3.7 B3.1 B2.8 ÷2.0 B1.6 B1.6 GOES Sp 400 290 200 170 110 110 070 msh N 1 1 1 IMF - - - -/+ +/- - - áóå Å>2 5.6å+7 1.2å+7 2.0å+7 1.2å+7 8.2E+7 4.2E+5 1.2å+5 GOES Ie>2 181 187 218 418 621 pfu GOES Ap 3 1 1 2 7 7 10 nT BOULDER Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 4 3 2 7 7 10 - nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 1 - 7.12. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNCETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE 30.11-1.12, AND 4-5.12 WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM THE CORONAL HOLE OF POSITIVE POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM ~30%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru