Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 07 - 13.12.2015, Forecast on 14 - 21.12.2015, Carrington Rotation 2171 (28,17.11.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W =44+9/-14 (Wn=70+15/-22). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4 - 7 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+15/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY ALL DAYS WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. ACCORDING TO THE DA- TA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >13 CMEs, ONE - A TYPE II (an- gular width 180 - 270 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 08.12 >0952 >2234 S49E24L191 10 08.12 >1410 >0731 S23E51L164 12 09.12 >0950 >2232 S11E16L184 12 11.09 0418 S10E90L085 ? CME/0500 12.09 0352 0505 S13W35L194 ? C1.8 12463 CME/0736 12.12 <1027 >2215 S17W14L191 6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N90L264 N60L184 S05L269 N30L304 7.12 6 SDO, SOHO... CH + S01L262 S12L209 S22L214 S05L266 8.12 6 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH - N30L134 N28L131 N05L158 N09L168 15.12 3 G0 SDO, SOHO... CH - N35L114 N33L111 N25L121 N28L126 18.12 1 G0 SDO, SOHO... The last CH was formed 10.12 on a visible disk. R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5) - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 30.11/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 14.12. DECEMBER 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 DECEMBER Wus 050 058 077 086 077 089 074 F10.7 101 111 109 109 114 117 123 èbcg ÷2.4 ÷2.3 B3.0 B2.5 ÷3.8 B5.0 B4.3 GOES Sp 130 160 190 280 170 290 430 msh N 1 1 1 1 2 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 1.3å+8 3.4å+8 3.4å+8 8.4å+7 1.4E+8 2.0E+8 3.5å+8 GOES Ie>2 3587 8733 10716 3235 6095 6196 8708 pfu GOES Ap 20 11 8 24 20 13 8 nT BOULDER Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 21 13 10 20 22 13 6 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS WAS BEGINNING AT 07.12/0945 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 7 - 13.12. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 14 - 15.12. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE 7, 10 AND 11.12. WHEN WERE OB- SERVED SUFFICIENT INTENSIVE SUBSTORMS (G1) WERE OBSERVED, BUT THEY ON DURATION DIDN'T REACH CRITERION OF THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (>12 h.). IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE 14 - 15.12, WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM THE CORONAL HOLE OF NEGATIVE POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF GEOMAGNE- TIC STORM ~20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru