Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 21 - 28.12.2015 Ç., Forecast on 28.12.2015 - 03.01.2016, Carrington Rotation 2171 (28,17.11.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W =36+7/-13 (Wn= 58+10/-6). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4-2 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE WAS BIG, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. IN THE LAST 21 - 24.12 FIVE SOLAR FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASSES WERE OCCURENCE. THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+15/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY 21 -24.12 WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AND IN OTHER DAYS - ON THE LOW LEVEL. THREE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS PERIOD. ACCORDING TO SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >16 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 21.12 0052 0103 >0111 N04E78L331 M2.8/ 1.9E-02 12472 II/1 21.12 1009 1019 >1032 N04E85L331 M1.1/1N 1.0E-02 12472 22.12 0315 0334 >0348 S23E75L331 M1.6/SF 2.1E-02 12473 IV/2 23.12 0023 0040 0107 S22E63l331 M4.7/1F 4.9E-02 12473 II/2 CME/0125 24.12 0149 0212 >0222 S21E50L331 M1.1/ 1.3E-02 12473 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 23.12 >1412 >0713 S12E57L320 9 23.12 >2250 >1513 S10E41L336 10 24.12 >1439 >0714 N09W29L033 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE DETERMINED BY AR12473, WHICCJNTINUES THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUXES EMERGES, UNTIL IMPORTANT. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories -------------------------------------------------------------------- ÚÎÁË N ËÏÎÅà å ËÏÎÅà S ËÏÎÅà W ËÏÎÅà ïëð R G ïâóåò÷áôïòéé CH - S35L057 S6JL340 Ps S37L061 18.12 >10 A SDO, SOHO... CH + N85L329 N50L321 N30L004 N30L004 28-31.12 6 G0 SDO, SOHO... CH + N85L295 N35L250 N15L308 N25L312 28-31.12 6 G0 SDO, SOHO... The last two - parts of the huge CH which is gradually coming nearer to a N-pole. R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5) - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 14.12/1130 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 29.12. DECEMBER 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 DECEMBER Wus 038 068 063 051 071 063 067 F10.7 122 130 134 133 126 117 110 èbcg ÷6.7 ÷7.4 B5.2 B6.9 ÷4.9 B4.0 B3.3 GOES Sp 500 790 910 880 880 620 560 msh N 2 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - áóå Å>2 2.7å+7 6.3å+7 1.2å+8 1.3å+8 1.1E+8 8.9E+7 1.5å+8 GOES Ie>2 1545 1727 3889 4505 3732 3621 7792 pfu GOES Ap 36 12 14 13 9 16 10 nT BOULDER Dst -160 -52 -41 -25 -21 -25 -35 nT KIOTO Amsc 27 11 14 11 8 16 8 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS WAS BEGINNING AT 21.12/0515 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 21 - 28.12. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 29 - 31.12. 20 - 21.12 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE TO THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= 49, dur.= 39 h.) TO IZMIRAN DATA. THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE (the biggest in the current solar cycle BY Dst-index = 160 nT) WAS DEFINED BY A SERIES OF EEJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENT 15-16. 12. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru