Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 04 - 10.01.2016, Forecast on 11 - 18.01.2016, Carrington Rotation 2172 (25,50.112.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS EXCEPT 5.01 - THE VERY LOW. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM (old) WAS W = 36+14/-19 (Wn= 58+22/-30). ON THE VISIBLE SO- LAR DISK 2 - 6 QUITE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+15/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY 6 AND 7.01 WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL, AND AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS IN OTHER DAYS. FOUR EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS PERIOD. ACCORDING TO SOHO AND STEREO CORO- NOGRAPHS DATA >22 CMEs, ONE OF THEM WAS "HALO" TYPE AND ONE - "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 04.01 ~1230 SE CME 06.01 1300 SE CME/IV-1336 UT 06.01 1430 S22W9OL334 b/s 12473 06.01 >2208 >2132 N07E34L158 12 12477 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories óî + N05L223 S18L206 S23L210 S10L239 46100 06.01 3 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N28L141 N25L139 N17L162 N18L164 9600 13.01 4 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - Ps Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5) - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 2.01/1230 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 11.01 AND +/- ONLY 29.01. JANUARY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 JANUARY Wus 060 029 038 057 080 084 073 F10.7 095 095 100 103 109 107 109 èbcg ÷2.2 ÷2.2 B3.0 B2.8 ÷2.4 B2.2 B2.4 GOES Sp 160 100 160 300 340 390 270 msh N 1 1 1 2 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 2.7å+8 2.3å+8 6.5å+7 1.7å+7 2.1E+8 1.8E+8 1.0å+8 GOES Ie>2 7407 6152 2110 5126 5724 3899 2874 pfu GOES Ap 5 6 21 16 8 5 6 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 7 8 24 14 10 5 7 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BEGINNING AT 1.01/2035 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 1 - 10.01. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. The GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE 6.03 WHEN the 9-HOUR SUBSTORM OF INTENSITY (G1) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA WAS OBSERVED (G0, 6 hours OF ACCORDING BOULDER DATA). IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNSET- TLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru