Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 18 - 24.01.2016,
                Forecast on 25.01 - 01.02.2016,
Carrington Rotations 2172, 2173 (25,50.12.2015; 21,83.05.2016) 
  
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTI-
MATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W = 32+3/-4 (WÎ = 51+8/-6). ON THE 
VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4 - 2  QUITE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. 
 
 THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS 
EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK.  AS ESTIMATED,  THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY 
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL 
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+15/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY 20, 21 AND 24.01 WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL, AND AT THE 
VERY LOW LEVELS IN OTHER DAYS.  FIVE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS 
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ACCORDING TO SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA 
>15 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

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FLARES   to   tm   te    c/p local.Class    E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                   X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2
DSF     to      te  Localization   l × ÇÒÁÄ.   Fl     Aï        CME
19.01 <0057 <0544  S40E90L~300    0.09Rs 
19.01 <0839 <0704  S35E26L004       9
19.01  1727  2124  S35E19L011       9
19.01  1832  2227  N12W16L046       7
20.01  1819  2136  N33W33L050       8 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

 ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end    Sch    EE  R  G  Observatories
óî -   S39L046 S45L031    Ps   S40L058 >138900 21.01      SDO, SOHO..
CH +   N50L335 N42L324 N25L352 N28L354         25.01   G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH +   Pn L307 N65L227 N18L287 N40L327         27.01   G0 SDO, SOHO..
Last 2 CH - the parts of polar CH.
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5) - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 19.01/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 29.01.

JANUARY  18     19     20     21     22     23     24      JANUARY
Wus     048    055    059    056    050    054    047  
F10.7   100    098    100    104    101    099    104    
èbcg   ÷1.8   ÷1.8   B2.4   B2.5   ÷2.0   B2.2   B2.9      GOES
Sp      280    110    180    200    180    170    230  msh   
N               1      1                            
IMF      +     +/-     -      -      -      -      -        áóå   
Å>2  6.6å+7 1.2å+6 1.8å+5 3.5å+6 7.4E+7 1.2E+8 2.6å+8       GOES
Ie>2   1560    641                 2379   4118   1288  pfu  GOES 
Ap       4      10     27     29     15     12     11  nT  BOULDER 
Dst            -18   -104    -62    -37    -32    -19  nô  KIOTO 
Amsc     3      10     29     26     15     13     13  nT  IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINNING AT 13.01/1420 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 13 - 18.01. NEXT FLUX WAS BE-
GINNING AT 22.01/1325 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 22 - 24.01.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 25 - 27.01.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM TO 
QUIET.  THE FIRST MINOR MAGNETIC STORM OF THE PERIOD (G2, Ams = 41, 
dur. = 27 h.) ACCORDING OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND (G2, Ams= 
36, dur.= 24 h.) BY IZMIRAN DATA WAS REGISTERED 20 - 22.01. THE SE-
COND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 27, dur.= 15 h.) ACCORDING TO  
THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND (G1, Ams=39, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING 
TO IZMIRAN DATA WAS REGISTERED 21-22.01. THEIR SOURCES WERE THE AR-
RIVAL of DISTURBANCE (CME) FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 14.01 AND 
THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND (CH HSS - in modern desig-
nations) FROM THE SOUTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE.  IN OTHER DAYS THE 
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

 NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNSET-
TLED AND QUITE BUT POSSIBLE ACTIVE 26, 27.01 - POLAR CORONAL HOLE 
HIGH SPEED STREAM (CH HSS) "+" POLARITY.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru