Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 08 - 13.02.2016, Forecast on 14 - 22.02.2016, Carrington Rotation 2173, 2174 (21,83.01; 18,17.02.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. CALCULATED, AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD MADE W=43+6/-15 (WÎ=69+5/-25). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 5-2 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONS- TANTLY OBSERVED. THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 035+15/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL 12-13.02 AND AT A LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. THREE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSER- VED. ACCORDING TO SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >19 CMEs, ONE WAS "PARTIALE HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90 - 180 deg.). --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 12.02 1036 1047 >1053 N11W14L089 M1.0/ 5.8E-03 12497 13.02 1516 1524 1550 N13W25L089 M1.8/1B 4.3E-03 12497 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 08.02 1740 2309 N09E11L111 24 C8.9/1F 12496 10.02 >1029 >2254 S44E01L095 6 11.02 2022 2103 N09W08L091 11 12497 II/2 CME ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories CH - N18L157 N19L159 S08L174 N01L175 n/d 8.02 5 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S12L117 S17L113 S19L117 S15L120 n/d 12.02 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S20L038 S40L338 Ps S28L053 209200 17.02 G2 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5) - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 13.01/0130 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 15.02. æå÷òáìø 08 09 10 11 12 13 æå÷òáìø Wus 082 079 082 068 074 046 F10.7 115 117 112 113 112 110 èbcg ÷3.3 ÷3.7 B2.8 B2.8 ÷4.4 B3.7 GOES Sp 650 350 350 250 290 230 msh N 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + +/- áóå Å>2 5.9å+5 3.5å+6 5.9å+6 1.5å+6 3.6E+5 2.1E+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 16 10 4 11 4 7 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 14 9 6 12 11 5 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 18 - 23.02. GEOMAGNETIC FUELD ACTIVITY WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HOWEVER 17.02 EARTH WILL ENTER IN THE HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM SOUTH POLAR CORONAL HOLE, AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CAN BE AC- TIVE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM THESE DAYS ABOUT 10%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru