Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 14 - 21.02.2016,
                Forecast on 22 - 29.02.2016,
  Carrington Rotation 2173, 2174 (21,83.01; 18,17.02.2016)
  
 SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. 
CALCULATED, AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD MADE W=28+8/-7 (WÎ=45+13/-11). 
ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 3-4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONS-
TANTLY OBSERVED.
 
THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY IS EX-
PECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. ESTIMATED,  THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE 
VALUE  OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN  THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM  
FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 035+15/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL 14-15.02 AND AT THE LOW LE-
VEL IN OTHER DAYS. THREE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS HAVE BEEN OB-
SERVED.  ACCORDING TO SOHO  AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 24 CMEs, 
TWO WERE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90 - 180 deg.).

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FLARES   to   tm   te    c/p local.Class    E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                   X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2
14.02 1918 1926 >1929  N15W47L091 M1.0/SF 3.6E-03  12497
15.02 1037 1056  1159 N10W52L091  1N/M1.1 7.4E-03  12497      

DSF     to      te  Localization   l × ÇÒÁÄ.   Fl     Aï      CME/to
14.02 >1224  >0706   S48W07L049      25                    
14.02  1539   2049   S35W29L078      20 
16.02 >0020  >1431   S02W23L040       6
18.02  0416   0634   N07E33L316       8              12501
18.02  2154   2245   S28E34L334      46                    
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end    Sch    EE  R  G  Observatories
CH -   S20L038 S40L338    Ps   S28L053 209200 17.02    G2 SDO, SOHO..
CH +   N50L334 N40L302 N20L324 N30L352  40500  8.02 7  no SDO, SOHO..
CH +   N30L299 N30L299 N15L315 N25L322  11200 10.02 7  no SDO, SOHO..
CH +      Pn   N80L294 N60L312 N65L322         8.02 7  no SDO, SOHO..
Last 3 CH - one polar CH.
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 15.02/0630 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 23.02.

FEBRUARY 14     15     16     17     18     19     20     21  FEBRUARY
Wus     052    048    049    060    035    046    046    047
F10.7   108    107    104    100    095    110    100    096
èbcg   ÷4.1   ÷5.4   B3.9   B4.3   ÷4.0   B3.7   ÷1.9   B1.7     GOES
Sp      280    310    260    300    070    230    210    260 msh  
N        1             1      1             1     1
IMF      +    +/-      -      -      -      -     -       -      áóå   
Å>2  1.2å+6 3.2å+6 1.9å+6 1.1å+8 3.7E+8 2.1E+5 7.0å+8 8.9E+8     GOES
Ie>2                        4875  13229  36465  15809  21836 pfu GOES 
Ap      11     6       35     39     30     7     6       4  nT  BOULDER 
Dst                   -56    -52    -56                      nô  KIOTO 
Amsc    9      10      39     24     24     14    7       7  nT  IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BEGIN-
NING 17.02/1330 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 17 - 21.02.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 40, dur. = 45 h.) ACCORDING DATA TO THE 
CENTER IN BOULDERE, ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA IT BROKE UP TO TWO (G2, Ams=
36, dur. = 18 h.) AND (G1, Ams=31, dur. = 15 h.)  BEGAN 16.02, WHEN THE 
EARTH WAS PASSED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM LOW-LATITUDE PART OF NEGATIVE PO-
LARITY BIG POLAR (Ps) CORONAL HOLE. 15 AND 18.02 ARE NOTED RATHER INTEN-
SIVE SUBSTORMS (G0 AND G1). GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IN OTHER DAYS WAS 
AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. 

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru