------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2016 HAS MADE Wfeb. = 34.3, 57.2 (new) THAT GIVES FOR 79 MONTHS (2015, AUGUST) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC- LE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*aug. = 39.8; 66.3 - (in new system); W*july = 41.0; 68.2 - (in new system); - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system, if it remains. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, FEBRUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 79 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 45 6.. 78 11.. 85 16.. 43 21.. 47 26.. 48 2.. 53 7.. 87 12.. 66 17.. 40 22.. 34 27.. 28 3.. 82 8.. 94 13.. 38 18.. 37 23.. 37 28.. 37 4..108í 9.. 83 14.. 50 19.. 46 24.. 34 29.. 46 5..108í 10.. 80 15.. 51 20.. 50 25.. 25m THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, FEBRUARY F10.7feb. = 103.6 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, FEBRUARY Ap feb. = 9.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 22 - 28.02.2016, Forecast on 29.02 - 06.03.2016, Carrington Rotation 2174 (18,17.02.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WERE AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.CAL- CULATED, AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD MADE W=37+20/-14 (Wn=59+42/-22). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 3 - 7 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS WE- RE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+15/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL ALL DAY, EXCEPT 4.03 - THE LOW LEVEL. FIVE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. AC- CORDING TO SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >17 CMEs, ONE WAS "PAR- TIALE HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90 - 180 deg.). --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 01.03 0742 0845 N16E60L149 30 CME/0824/II 01.30 0820 0839 N20E90L117 17 02.03 2030 2200 N07W20L200 8 03.03 1459 S05E02L165 6 CME/1712 03.03 2258 SW ? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories CH - N16L184 N14L181 N06L183 N12L189 n/d 4.02 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S23L109 S21L100 S31L107 S25L114 n/d 10.02 2 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 5.03/22 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 11.03. FEBRUARY 29 01 02 03 04 05 06 MARCH Wus 044 039 065 050 095 068 065 F10.7 091 097 098 099 101 096 096 èbcg ÷1.5 ÷1.6 B1.7 B1.2 ÷1.5 B1.2 ÷1.4 GOES Sp 160 140 220 150 190 180 140 msh N 1 4 3 1 IMF + + + + + +/- - áóå Å>2 2.3å+7 5.2å+6 2.8å+6 6.5å+6 1.0E+7 8.9E+6 5.4å+6 GOES Ie>2 472 554 172 167 pfu GOES Ap 4 9 7 8 4 4 49 nT BOULDER Dst -10 -96 nô KIOTO Amsc 6 11 8 6 6 4 29 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY REMAINED QUIET TO THE MIDDLE OF DAY 6.03 WHEN HAS BEEN NOTED MAJOR (G3, Ams= 65, dur.= 18 h.), ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDERE, AND (G2, Ams= 51, dur.= 12 h.) TO IZMIRAN DATA MAG- NETIC STORM. DISTURBATION FROM EJECTION OF VERY LARGE SOLAR FILAMENTS 1.03 BECAME ITS SOURCE WITH THE HIGH PROBABILITY. GROUND OBSERVATORIES HAVE NOT REGISTERED (perhaps, at the moment) THE SUDDEN COMMENCEMENT, HOWEVER BY DATA ACE (especially in a magnetic field) SUCH IMPULSE IS LOOKED THROUGH ABOUT 11 h UT. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru