Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 07 - 13.03.2016,
                Forecast on 14 - 21.03.2016,
  Carrington Rotations 2174, 2175 (18,17.02; 16,50.03.2016)
  
SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WERE AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. CAL-
CULATED, AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER  IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD MADE W =32+5/-6 (Wn= 52+7/-11). 
ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 4 -5 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS WE-
RE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED.
 
THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE 
NEXT WEEK. ESTIMATED,  THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE 
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM  FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS W = 030+15/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 9 AND 12.03, AND AT THE VERY 
LOW - ON OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCUR
RENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD,  ONE OF WHICH WAS VERY LONG. ACCORDING 
TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS, >23 CMEs,  ONE WAS 
"PARTIALE HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90-180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OB-
SERVED.
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FLARES   to   tm   te    c/p local.Class    E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                   X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2
DSF     to      te  Localization   l × ÇÒÁÄ.   Fl     Aï      CME/to
08.03 >1422  >0601   S51E02L          13
12.03 >1104  >0854   N54E29L          33
----------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Observatories
CH  -   S20L045 S50Ä355   Ps   S22L050 278800  15.02 2  G1 SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 5.03/22 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 
15.03.

MARCH    07     08     09     10     11     12     13      MARCH
Wus     061    048    061    061    048    056    043 
F10.7   094    096    097    095    094    095    093 
èbcg   ÷1.4   ÷1.6   B1.8   B1.6   ÷1.4   B1.4   ÷1.0      GOES
Sp      120    090    190    160    110    210    200  msh   
N                      2                    2       
IMF      -     -       -      -     -/+     +      +        áóå   
Å>2  8.4å+6 1.1å+8 1.9å+8 6.3å+7 9.8E+6 6.5E+6 3.9å+6      GOES
Ie>2    354   3263   6761   3078    673                pfu GOES 
Ap       27     7      7      10     25     13     4   nT  BOULDER 
Dst     -81    -47    -32    -35    -18    -19    -14  nô  KIOTO 
Amsc     25     11     10     8      24     15     3   nT  IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AT
8.03/1150 UT AND WAS ODSERVED 8 - 10.03.
 
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 16 - 23.03.

 GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY REMAINED QUITE TO THE MIDDLE OF DAY  6.03, 
WHEN HAS BEEN NOTED MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams = 65, dur .= 18 h.), 
ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER, AND (G2, Ams= 51, dur.= 12 h.) TO 
IZMIRAN DATA. DISTURBATION FROM EJECTION OF VERY LARGE SOLAR FILAMENT 
1.03 BECAME ITS SOURCE WITH THE HIGH PROBABILITY. THE SECOND MINOR MA-
GNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=35, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOUL-
DER AND (G1, Ams= 33, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA, RESULTED PA-
SSAGE EARTH OF HIGH STREAM SOLAR WIND FROM CORONAL HOLE NEGATIVE POLA-
RITY OF SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. IN THE REMAINING DAYS  GEOMAGNETIC 
CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED FROM ACTIVE TO MINOR 
MAGNETICšSTORM (P~ 20%) 15-16.03, WHEN THE EARTH  BE HELD HIGH SOLAR 
WIND STREAM (CH HSS) FROM POLAR CORONAL HOLE (Ps) OF NEGATIVE POLARI-
TY.  IN THE REMAINING DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNSETTLED 
AND QUITE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru