Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 14 - 20.03.2016, Forecast on 21 - 28.03.2016, Carrington Rotations 2174, 2175 (18,17.02; 16,50.03.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON THE AVERAGE, AND THE LAST THREE DAYS - ON THE LOW LEVEL. CALCULATED, AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD MADE W=26+14/-11 (Wn= 41+12/-26). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 5 - 2 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVE- RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+15/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 15, 16 AND 20.03, AND AT THE VERY LOW -ON OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD, ONE OF WHICH WAS VERY LONG. ACCOR- DING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS, >33 CMEs, ONE WAS "PARTIALE HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90-180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 16.03 0634 0646 >0657 C2.2/ 2.2E-03 12522 II/2 óíå Pr DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 16.03 >0001 >1412 N24W47L051 7 16.03 2114 2147 S48W42L046 12 19.03 2146 2310 S28W04L324 17 20.03 0719 1059 S15E34L273 8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories CH - S20L045 S50Ä355 Ps S22L050 278800 15.02 2 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N45L285 N40L280 N15L315 N30L345 n/d 21.02 10 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 14.03/18 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 24.03. íáòô 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 íáòô Wus 057 044 053 066 029 026 025 F10.7 093 094 091 092 090 089 088 èbcg ÷1.5 ÷1.9 B1.8 B1.6 ÷1.2 B1.2 A9.3 GOES Sp 220 170 190 320 300 410 310 msh N 1 2 1 IMF +/- - - - - - - áóå Å>2 3.9å+6 4.6å+6 7.7å+7 8.7å+7 1.9E+8 2.9E+7 3.4å+7 GOES Ie>2 245 203 3690 2338 7410 980 1640 pfu GOES Ap 15 27 21 24 9 19 12 nT BOULDER Dst -20 -49 -55 -51 -27 -50 -41 nô KéOTO Amsc 14 25 19 20 12 17 14 nT éúíéòáî -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AT 16.03/1300 UT AND WAS ODSERVED 16 - 20.03. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 21 - 23.03. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS DEFINED BY THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF VERY EXTENDED POLAR CORONAL HOLE (CH HSS) OF THE SOLAR SOUTHERN HE- MISPHERE ON WHICH DISTURBATIONS FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS WERE IMPOSED. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 31, dur.= 18 h). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER 14-15.03 WAS REGISTERED. ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA IT WAS A 9-hour SUBSTORM (G0). AT THE END OF THE DAYS 15.03 BOTH OBSERVATORIES HAVE REGISTERED THE INTENSIVE (G1 AND G2) SUBSTORM LASTING 9 h. AT THE END OF THE DAYS 16.03 THE FOLLOWING MI- NOR MAGNETIC STORM HAS BEGUN (G1, Ams= 37, dur.=15 h). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G0, Ams=24, dur.=12 h). ON TO IZMIRAN DA- TA. AND ONE MORE THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED ON MARCH 19 (G0, Ams = 24, dur. = 12 h). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND 6-h. SUBSTORM (G0) TO IZMIRAN DATA. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDINIONS WERE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. THE POSITIVE CORONAL HOLE DURING THE PRESENT PERIOD OF GEOEFFECTIVE SHOULDN'T BE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru