Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.03 - 03.04.2016, Forecast on 04 - 11.04.2016, Carrington Rotations 2175 (16,50.03.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT A LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 15+2/-7 (Wn= 23+1/-11). 2-1 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE BIG SIZE (AR12529, N10L036, Sp =830 msh), WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE LOW AND AFTER 12.04 THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVE- AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVEL TO THE APPEARANCE ON THE VISIBLE DISK AR12529 APRIL, 6 AND ON LOW-IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DA- TA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS, >20 CMEs, TWO - TYPE II (angular width >90 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 08.04 2103 2200 S00E48L008 11 09.04 0752 1005 S41W18L064 14 10.04 <0108 ~1000 <1340 N12E29L001 21 CME/1100 10.04 >2101 >2331 N41W32L062 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND, IN CASE OF EMERGENCE OF THE LARGE NEW MAGNETIC FLUX IN AR12529 (PROBABILITY ~ 40%), ON THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories CH - N15L161 N14L159 N10L170 N15L178 2800 3.04 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N02L029 S07L023 S12L033 S08L040 7000 13.04 2(7) SDO, SOHO.. CH - S38L012 - Ps S55L025 123400 14.04 SDO, SOHO.. The last two CH is polar CH. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 07.04/1730 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 12.04. APRIL 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 APRIL Wus 023 027 013 026 027 029 026 F10.7 083 083 087 092 098 106 111 èbcg A9.3 á7.6 B2.2 ÷3.5 ÷3.2 ÷3.9 ÷5.2 GOES Sp 160 150 020 370 360 830 820 msh N 1 IMF - - - -/+ + + + áóå Å>2 8.9å+7 1.4å+8 7.2å+7 3.0å+7 5.4E+4 8.1E+5 1.6å+5 GOES Ie>2 2862 3924 2100 1937 pfu GOES Ap 7 5 7 15 10 3 7 nT BOULDER Dst 20 58 59 18 nô KIOTO Amsc 7 7 8 28 8 5 10 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AT 4.04 AND OBSERVED 4 - 7.04. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 14 - 18.04. THE INTENSIVE MAGNETIC SUBSTORM (G2), dur.>9 h. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER HAS BEEN NOTED 7-8. 04, WHEN EARTH PASSING OF SOLAR SECTOR BORDER (SSB) ON WHICH DISTUR- BANCE OT SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 4.04 WAS IMPOSED. IN OTHER DAYS GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE TO MINOR OF THE MAGNETIC STORM 12-14.04 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE SOLAR WIND HIGH- SPEED STREAM OF THE NEGATIVE POLARITY SOLAR CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOU- THERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NOT LESS THAN 40%. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru