Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 04 - 10.04.2016, Forecast on 11 - 18.04.2016, Carrington Rotations 2175, 2176(16,50.03; 12,79.04.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN THROUGH THE PERIOD WAS AT A AVE- RAGE LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE- LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)FOR THE PERIOD IS W=27+14/-7 WÎ=43+23/-10). 2-3 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE BIG SIZE (AR12529, N10L036, Sp = 830 msh), WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVI- TY. THE ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL, THE LARGE FLARE 18.04 WAS OCCUREN- CE IN THE FIRST DAY OF THE NEXT PERIOD. THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SO- HO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >20 CMEs, ONE - TYPE III (angular width >90 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 18.04 0014 0029 0102 N12W62L340 M6.7/1F 4.9E-02 12529 II/2 IV/2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 13.04 >0113 >1258 N33W37L034 6 15.04 >0102 >1335 S20W22L352 5 16.07 1943 2013 N09W50 8 C5.8 12529 CME/2036 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IN THE FIRST THREE DAYS IS EXPECTED ON HIGH AND AVERAGE (SO FAR AR12529 WON'T LEAVE FOR THE WESTERN LIMB) LEVEL, BOTH LOW AND VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories CH - N02L029 S07L023 S12L033 S08L040 7000 13.04 2(7) SDO, SOHO.. CH - S38L012 - Ps S55L025 123400 14.04 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N50L262 N46L255 N12L325 N30L337 57900 16.04 11 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 11.04/2330 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 18.04. áðòåìø 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 áðòåìø Wus 042 034 041 046 069 051 035 F10.7 117 111 108 111 112 113 102 èbcg B4.1 B3.0 B2.5 ÷2.6 ÷2.9 ÷3.0 ÷2.8 GOES Sp 880 820 810 810 760 750 830 msh N 1 1 1 IMF +/- - - - - - - áóå Å>2 5.6å+5 4.2å+5 8.4å+7 1.1å+8 6.7E+7 9.3E+7 1.6å+7 GOES Ie>2 4307 5141 2538 2086 1036 pfu GOES Ap 5 19 26 20 9 13 18 nT BOULDER Dst -20 -58 -59 -52 -37 nô KIOTO Amsc 7 20 21 18 9 18 20 nT IZMIRAN Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. -------------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AT 13.04/1445 UT AND OBSERVED 13 - 17.04. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 28, dUR. = 27 h.). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND THE MAGNETIC SUBSTORM (G0, 9 h) BY IZMIRAN DA- TA IS REGISTERED 13 - 14.04 IN DURING EARTH'S PASS OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE (CH HSS) OF NEGATIVE POLARITY. 14.04 IN THE SECOND HALF OF DAY, AFTER ARRIVAL TO THE EARTH OF DIS- TURBANCE (CME) FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 10.04, BY IZMIRAN DATA NEXT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 29, dur. = 12 h.) IS REGISTE- RED. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER IT WAS THE MAGNETIC SUBSTORM (G1, 9 h). ONE MORE MINORL MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 31, dur.=15 h.) BY IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1, Ams= 27, dur.= 12 h.) 16 - 17.04 are REGIST- RED. IT PROBABLE SOURCE IS POSITIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED TILL APRIL 23 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SO- LAR WIND (CH HSS) OF THE POSITIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru