Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 18 - 24.04.2016, Forecast on 25.04 - 01.05.2016, Carrington Rotation 2176(12,79.04.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT A AVERAGE LEVEL AT 21, 24. 04. AND THE LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)FOR THE PERIOD IS W=17+11/-10 (WÎ =27+17/-16). 1 - 4 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, ONE BIG SIZE (AR12529, N10L036, Sp= 830 msh) WAS BIG WE- RE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVI- TY. THE ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 18.04, THE LOW-19.04 AND THE VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE SEVEN SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURREN- CES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CO- RONOGRAPHS >18 CMEs, ONE - TYPE III (angular width >90 - <180 deg.) AND ONE-TYPE II (angular width >90 - <180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 18.04 0014 0029 0102 N12W62L340 M6.7/1F 4.9E-02 12529 II/2 IV/2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 17.04 >1551 >0615 N00W67L001 6 18.04 >1207 >0803 N10E36L243 7 12532 19.04 >0035 >1336 N13E29L241 13 22.04 1322 1404 S37W72L300 10 CME/1448 23.04 >0935 >2310 N16W14L229 5 23.04 >1230 >0940 N22W10L225 11 24.04 0335 N W>90L>305 b/s CME/0424 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N55L254 S22L229 S25L261 N20L261 109300 23.04 2 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S10L173 S20L160 S25L163 S12L178 n/d 30.04 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N27L160 N12L148 N10L148 N15L178 n/d 30.04 1 SDO, SOHO.. The first CH - possible superposition of 3 CH. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 18.04/1030 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 29. 04. APRIL 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 APRIL Wus 028 028 024 035 022 011 046 F10.7 095 089 083 077 077 079 082 èbcg B2.5 B2.2 B2.1 ÷1.4 á8.8 á8.2 ÷1.0 GOES Sp 640 640 090 080 070 080 210 msh N 1 IMF -/+ + + + + + + áóå Å>2 8.4å+6 1.9å+7 8.1å+6 5.5å+6 7.0E+6 5.7E+6 4.9å+6 GOES Ie>2 207 376 310 240 544 268 178 pfu GOES Ap 3 2 4 4 14 13 11 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 5 5 7 16 12 11 nT IZMIRAN Amsc 7 20 21 18 9 18 20 nT IZMIRAN Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. -------------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 1.05. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 24, dur.= 12 Þ.) BY IZMIRAN DATA WAS REGISTERED 22.04. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOLDERE SIGNIFICANT MAG- NETIC DISTURBANCE IS NOT NOTED. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED TILL APRIL, 30 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SO- LAR WIND (CH HSS) OF THE NEGATIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru